SGU Episode 923

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SGU Episode 923
March 18th 2023
"In a new study, University of California astronomers describe how extraterrestrial life has the potential to exist on distant exoplanets inside a special area called the 'terminator zone' — a ring on planets that have one side that always faces its star and one side that is always dark."
SGU 922                      SGU 924
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
B: Bob Novella
C: Cara Santa Maria
J: Jay Novella
E: Evan Bernstein
Guest
DM: Derek Muller, Australian-Canadian science communicator
Quote of the Week
The Scientific Revolution has not been a revolution of knowledge. It has been above all a revolution of ignorance. The great discovery that launched the Scientific Revolution was the discovery that humans do not know the answers to their most important questions.
Yuval Noah Harari, Israeli public intellectual
Links
Download Podcast
Show Notes
Forum Discussion

Introduction, Raccoon Dogs, "Last of Us" show

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

S: Hello and welcome to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe. Today is Thursday, March 16^th, 2023, and this is your host, Steven Novella. Joining me this week are Bob Novella...

B: Hey, everybody!

S: Cara Santa Maria...

C: Howdy.

S: Jay Novella...

J: Hey guys.

S: ...and Evan Bernstein.

E: Good evening everyone!

S: Happy day after the Ides of March everyone.

C: Oh yeah.

B: Ha!

E: All right, yes.

J: Sure if you want that, that's fine.

E: Yeah, that's what [inaudible].

B: Should've watched that scene from Rome yesterday.

S: I like the Ides of March-is one of my favorite days of the year.

C: No, it's not.

B: Really?

C: Why?

S: It is.

B: Wow, that's a [inaudible]

E: What did you do to celebrate?

S: Because March is the transition from winter to spring and the middle of the month is the halfway point. So we're basically in spring now, even though spring's still a week away.

E: It has a ground hog-ish theme sort of to it in a way, but okay.

B: That's not even in my top five.

C: Yeah, why would that be your favorite? Couldn't just like the equinox be your favorite then?

S: Oh yeah, yeah. But we're almost at the equinox. That's the point.

C: I see.

E: Cara, everybody celebrates the equinox.

S: No, mentally for me-

C: [inaudible] Ides of March.

S: March is always that transition. And to put a point on this earlier this week before the Ides of March, we had the worst winter storm of the year just this week.

E: Oh my gosh.

S: And today it's 60 degrees and spring like, so there you go.

B: Right.

C: I see.

B: That wasn't that bad at all.

S: But it was still the worst.

E: Exactly what we got to.

S: It's the first time we had any significant snow on the ground was this weekend. It's already gone. It's a melted, it's beautiful out spring.

J: Beautiful.

C: It's beautiful. Oh, okay. Two things. One, just saw a pretty interesting news alert reading it as I talk, so bear with me, that there's some new evidence and this Catherine Wu of the Atlantic says the strongest evidence yet that an animal started the pandemic. So there's new genetic samples from China, from Wuhan, from that market that appear to link the early COVID genes to raccoon dogs. Do you guys know about raccoon dogs?

S: I'm just learning about their existence, which shocks me. It's amazing. They look, they look-

B: It's that like Texarkana?

C: Kind of. They look like raccoon and dogs.

S: Yeah, they do. They really do look like raccoon dogs. That's the perfect name for them.

E: It's a hybrid.

C: They're really cute.

S: It's a hybrid.

C: But apparently they were also being illegally sold at the market and they may have been shedding the virus. I don't know. There's obviously we got to dig more into this, but it kind of coming on the heels of all this conversation about lab leak and it's just so fascinating that now three years into the pandemic, we're still discovering new things about how it started. I personally only just now got COVID, which is fascinating to me as well. I'm on the tail of it-

B: How's that going?

C: -feeling better. It lasted three days. It's amazing. I started testing positive Wednesday night. I got symptoms Wednesday morning, maybe even Tuesday night. Tested positive Wednesday night took Paxlovid the minute I had a positive test. It was negative by Saturday. I was negative before I finished my Paxlovid, which was Monday.

J: Oh wow.

E: Interesting.

J: That's powerful stuff, man.

C: Yeah, I also think that whatever strain this is is just a quick and dirty. Like it didn't make me that sick, granted I'm like fully vaccinated and boosted-

S: That's what it is.

C: -but a lot of other people I know who had it were also not that sick, but they're all vaccinated too. But it was like kind of quick, just feels like a cold. But something else that I find really fascinating is that, in my sickness, I watched the Last of Us and I'm sort of obsessed.

S: That's awesome.

C: Speaking of.

B: Oh, fantastic show.

C: It's so good, Bob.

B: Oh, my God. On so many levels.

C: So many. Like, and I could kind of care less about like the zombie component of it, even though I get it.

B: Blah!

C: But to me, that's the background.

S: You're right, that's total background.

C: Like that's the vehicle.

B: Yeah, it is. It's a nice background.

C: It is. It works. But like, and of course, I didn't play the video game. I don't, I didn't already know about the lore, but the story and the psychology behind the story. I just, I love when something is ostensibly like a fun, zombie or like horror or suspense kind of show, but really at its depth it's a deep-

E: Rom-com.

C: -question about humanity.

S: Where are you in the series?

C: Oh, I finished it.

S: Oh, yeah. We did a full review on AQ6. It was glowing reviews all around. It was really the character development and everything was fantastic. Definitely recommend it. But getting back to the raccoon dog that I just want to talk about.

B: Oh my.

S: Because this is, we've obviously been following the lab leak theory, both here and on Science-Based Medicine, since the beginning of the pandemic. And what's going, it's interesting, this is, exploding again. What's interesting is that you have like the two communities, which take their different approach to the question are getting so polarized. Like they're both now entrenching if anything. So essentially you could take two approaches to the question of where did the virus come from. There's the scientific approach or the epidemiology, virology approach, right, which is to say, what does the virus look like? What does it look similar to? What's the epidemiology of the early detections of the virus? And then the other approach is the investigatory approach, which is just what happened in that part of the world at the time. So recently the FBI and the Department of Defense both came out saying, yeah, we're pretty sure that the Chinese did this, right, that it was leaked from a lab and they were responsible and they're covering it up. But we can't tell you why we think that. It's secret, but we're-

C: Yeah, that's really helpful.

S: Trust us, we're really sure about this. Scientists on the other hand are going, no, that's not what the scientific evidence shows. It shows the epidemiology. It zeroes in on the Wuhan wet market. This is an animal spillover. There's no signs of engineering. That's one thing. That's why they have to back off from the engineered virus to the lab leak virus because there's no evidence that it was engineered. It's a natural virus. It just accidentally got out of the lab. Therefore we could avoid the evidence from biology. But the epidemiological evidence still points to no way. It was just a spillover from the wet market. So this new little piece of evidence is huge.

C: Right. Because we didn't have that before.

S: They're the one thing. The one thing we didn't have was the animal of origin. But they're saying that they have connections between the virus and viruses in raccoon dogs. That's the last piece.

E: I'm sorry. Who's they? And who's in this context?

C: So it's an international team.

S: Scientists.

E: Who's they?

C: It's an international team of virologist, genomisists and evolutionary biologists. So a big collaboration.

E: Okay. So it's not the-

C: No, this is published-

E: It's not Chinese government.

S: No.

C: No, no, no, no, no. This is international collaboration of individuals basically saying that exactly what Steve said. Like everything pointed to the fact that this basically wholesale seafood market seemed like the origin, but nobody could point to the actual genetic data saying this is the animal that it came from. And now they've basically said, okay, looking at these sequences, the raccoon dogs that were being sold there could have been carrying and shedding the virus in that site at that time.

E: And how will they be able to confirm this for sure?

C: I don't know if we'll ever fully confirm it.

S: Yeah, I mean, it's in the past, right? But all the again epidemiological, neurological data is pointing to the wet market. And now we have a much one more layer of detail, a possible species of origin. We're getting closer to the viruses of origin. This is as close to a smoking gun I think as we're going to get again scientifically. Just doesn't jive with the lab leak theory. And I think my, my sense is that the investigators, right, not the scientists, but the government people, they're basing their opinion on the fact that China is hiding something.

C: And they are.

S: And they are.

C: I mean, China's not been very forthcoming.

S: It's not a compelling argument that there was a lab leak. Because remember, Evan, that China's position is that the virus came from outside of China. They're not saying it came from the wet market in Wuhan. They're saying it was some other country that imported it with frozen meats. It wasn't even China's fault. So they don't like either of the theories, right? And so they are being squirrely. They are hiding things. But that doesn't mean that it, that doesn't support the lab leak theory per se. Because they would also do that to try to deflect interest from the Wuhan wet market theory.

C: Right. But unfortunately, we have swabs. There are swabs of the wet market around when we know the pandemic started. And that individuals outside of China do have access to these swabs. The swabs are positive for COVID-19. But we didn't yet have any indication that there was an animal of origin also implicated in the swabs. Now, after new analysis of these samples, they are saying this animal host could be the host. Whereas previously, the Chinese researchers, when they first uploaded the data and shared it said, we've looked at it. No host can be deduced.

S: Right. So unless the FBI decides to declassify some information that really is like a smoking gun, this is, I think-

E: They won't.

S: -this is the best evidence that we have. This is again, I don't think the lab leak theories ever going to die to be honest with you.

E: No, it'll be a fight for a long time.

C: Yeah. But ultimately, what is our level? Where do we say that the proof is proof enough? So the argument here is, yeah, if we could find a raccoon dog with COVID at that point in time and watch it biting a person, like, oh, there, we saw the spillove event. But what they're saying is, in a single swab, if you've got genetic analysis or genetic material from a raccoon dog, you've got proof that a raccoon dog can carry this. And then you've got in that same swab COVID-19 virus. That's kind of as close as we're probably going to get.

S: Yeah, definitely strengthens that theory.

Quickie with Steve (10:27)

• Update: Mask Wearing meta-analysis

S: One of the quick follow up before we get on to the news items. Remember I reported a few weeks ago on the meta-analysis looking at studies, asking the question of what physical measures work in reducing the spread of respiratory virus and they concluded that, "masks don't work". And I pretty much tore apart.

E: Cochrane.

S: Yeah, that was a Cochrane review. I pretty much tore it apart. And specifically, the way the bottom line conclusion that was being presented by the lead author and by a lot of people who work for whatever reason, want to believe that masks are not effective in preventing COVID. Since then, and I did get some pushback on email from some of our listeners on that thing, I was whatever trying to dismiss the evidence, although I did a very detailed analysis of why it was crap. And I wrote about it also on Science-Based Medicine if you want to get into even more detail. Well, since then, there have been a number of other medical science communicators who have basically said the same thing that I did, although with sometimes different subsets of details that they focus on in terms of why the study didn't show, did not show that masks do not work. And in fact, the best evidence shows that masks do work at reducing the risk of spreading and contracting COVID in high-risk situations. If you wear the mask properly, like is the one big caveat. If you're not wearing a properly, it doesn't work. Since then, here's the new bit, right? The new bit is, Cochrane now has walked back their conclusion because they, here's what they said, they felt compelled to put out a statement. They said: "Many commentators have claimed that a recently updated Cochrane review shows that masks don't work, which is an inaccurate and misleading interpretation. The review examined whether interventions to promote mask wearing help to slow the spread of respiratory viruses. Given the limitations in the primary evidence, the review is not able to address the question of whether mask wearing itself reduces people's risk of contracting or spreading respiratory viruses. This wording was open to misinterpretation for which we apologize." It's kind of a soft apology, but they're basically trying to walk back the way the study has been misrepresented. They specifically dinged the lead author. They said he specifically went out of his way during an interview to misrepresent the study, did not show what he said, which again was the main point of the criticism.

E: Biased.

S: Yeah, it was clearly biased. So if you are interested in that, David Gorski did a follow-up post on Science-Based Medicine, talking about Cochrane's walk back, also talking, going into more detail on the things that I didn't write about when I discussed it, namely the history of Tom Jefferson, the lead author, who is sort of a chronic denialist when it comes to, like, these old vaccines don't work for this, they don't work for the flu and things like that. So it's not surprising that he would come out with this and he would, basically misrepresent the findings of the study in the media. So he does his usual deep dive going into that angle of things. So I would recommend you could read that for follow-up.

News Items

S:

B:

C:

J:

E:

(laughs) (laughter) (applause) [inaudible]

New Lunar Space Suits (13:45)

• Moon Spacesuit Prototype Unveiled

End of Life Care (23:58)

• Aggressive Medical Care Remains Common at Life’s End

GPT-4 Is Here (40:27)

• GPT-4

Terminator Zones (55:45)

• 'Terminator zones' on distant planets could harbor life, UC Irvine astronomers say

Ohio Chemical Spill (1:04:53)

• Headaches, coughing, burning of the skin: Symptoms Ohio residents have experienced after toxic train derailment

Who's That Noisy? (1:14:52)

Answer to previous Noisy:

MRI machine

New Noisy (1:18:21)

[Background hissing then light squawking/squeaking honks]

J: ... What the hell is that? ...

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Interview with Derek Muller (1:19:02)

• Derek Muller, an Australian-Canadian science communicator, filmmaker, and television personality, who is best known for his YouTube channel Veritasium

[top]                        

Science or Fiction (1:39:26)

Theme: Improvements in technology Item #1: Engineers have developed concrete made from lunar regolith and ordinary potato starch and requiring only low temperature heating that is almost three times as strong as regular concrete. Item #2: Aerospace engineers have made an airplane propeller blade design that significantly reduces noise while increasing thrust and efficiency by 20% over a traditional design. Item #3: Scientists report a new process for electrosynthesis of multicarbon products from CO2 that is twice as efficient as existing methods.

Answer	Item
Fiction	Propeller blade design
Science	Lunar regolith concrete
Science	New process for electrosynthesis

Host	Result
Steve	sweep

Rogue	Guess
Jay	Lunar regolith concrete
Bob	Lunar regolith concrete
Evan	Lunar regolith concrete
Cara	Lunar regolith concrete

Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.

Steve Explains Item #2

..."to blave"

...[have ridden]...

Skeptical Quote of the Week (1:55:48)

The Scientific Revolution has not been a revolution of knowledge. It has been above all a revolution of ignorance. The great discovery that launched the Scientific Revolution was the discovery that humans do not know the answers to their most important questions.  – Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, by Yuval Noah Harari (1976-present), Israeli public intellectual and historian

Signoff/Announcements ()

S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.

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