SGU Episode 895

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SGU Episode 895
September 3rd 2022
Solar panels on roof
SGU 894                      SGU 896
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
B: Bob Novella
C: Cara Santa Maria
J: Jay Novella
E: Evan Bernstein
Guest
SY: Dr. Seema Yasmin, British writer & science communicator
Quote of the Week
If you have an effect that nobody can replicate, then your phenomenon fades away. So if you want to have a legacy, then you jolly well better have an effect that replicates.
Susan Fiske, American social psychologist
Links
Download Podcast
Show Notes
Forum Discussion

Introduction, Steve's COVID, Cara in FL

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

[00:09.000 --> 00:14.440] Hello and welcome to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe. Today is Wednesday, August

[00:14.440 --> 00:19.280] 31st, 2022, and this is your host, Stephen Novella. Joining me this week are Bob Novella.

[00:19.280 --> 00:20.280] Hey, everybody.

[00:20.280 --> 00:21.280] Kara Santamaria.

[00:21.280 --> 00:22.280] Howdy.

[00:22.280 --> 00:23.280] Jay Novella.

[00:23.280 --> 00:24.280] Hey, guys.

[00:24.280 --> 00:25.280] And Evan Bernstein.

[00:25.280 --> 00:26.280] Good evening, friends.

[00:26.280 --> 00:29.280] Well, guys, it finally happened.

[00:29.280 --> 00:30.280] Oh, boy.

[00:30.280 --> 00:31.280] What happened?

[00:31.280 --> 00:32.280] It's no longer elite.

[00:32.280 --> 00:33.280] What happened?

[00:33.280 --> 00:34.280] You went on your first date.

[00:34.280 --> 00:35.280] I got COVID.

[00:35.280 --> 00:36.280] Oh.

[00:36.280 --> 00:37.280] Am I the last one standing?

[00:37.280 --> 00:38.280] Why did you do that?

[00:38.280 --> 00:39.280] No.

[00:39.280 --> 00:40.280] Why?

[00:40.280 --> 00:41.280] The Italy trip got me.

[00:41.280 --> 00:42.280] Too many crowds.

[00:42.280 --> 00:43.280] Italy.

[00:43.280 --> 00:48.280] Despite masking everywhere, I was masked the whole time.

[00:48.280 --> 00:51.280] There's only so much you can social distance.

[00:51.280 --> 00:52.280] We did the best we could.

[00:52.280 --> 00:56.280] It was probably the plane ride home, but based on the timing.

[00:56.280 --> 01:00.280] I'm at the tail end now because I was getting it just last week.

[01:00.280 --> 01:03.280] Were you feeling it in Italy or when you got home?

[01:03.280 --> 01:04.280] No.

[01:04.280 --> 01:05.280] No.

[01:05.280 --> 01:08.280] I wasn't feeling it until like a day after I got home.

[01:08.280 --> 01:10.280] Well, at least it didn't ruin your holiday.

[01:10.280 --> 01:11.280] Yeah, that's true.

[01:11.280 --> 01:12.280] That's a good thing.

[01:12.280 --> 01:15.280] It started with just a scratchy throat.

[01:15.280 --> 01:17.280] Even to the point, I'm like, is that something real?

[01:17.280 --> 01:19.280] Is the air just drying here?

[01:19.280 --> 01:20.280] Is something going on?

[01:20.280 --> 01:22.280] And then it hit me like a Mack truck.

[01:22.280 --> 01:26.280] Within two hours, clearly I had viremia.

[01:26.280 --> 01:29.280] So the virus is just replicating like mad in my bloodstream.

[01:29.280 --> 01:33.280] So I had the fever, chills, muscle aches, fatigue.

[01:33.280 --> 01:34.280] Were they multiplying?

[01:34.280 --> 01:36.280] They were multiplying, yeah.

[01:36.280 --> 01:39.280] Nice day.

[01:39.280 --> 01:42.280] And then it just turned into a really bad cold.

[01:42.280 --> 01:44.280] I'm still at the tail end.

[01:44.280 --> 01:45.280] Did you die?

[01:45.280 --> 01:46.280] Throughout the show.

[01:46.280 --> 01:47.280] No, I managed not to die, which is good.

[01:47.280 --> 01:48.280] That's good.

[01:48.280 --> 01:50.280] Well, look, let's say for what it is.

[01:50.280 --> 01:54.280] The vaccine, I know that most people that listen to this show

[01:54.280 --> 01:55.280] already know this.

[01:55.280 --> 01:58.280] But we need to take a moment to recognize

[01:58.280 --> 02:00.280] the miracle of freaking technology,

[02:00.280 --> 02:05.280] which is these vaccines that have saved millions of lives.

[02:05.280 --> 02:08.280] Steve, as much as Omicron isn't as deadly

[02:08.280 --> 02:13.280] as the first couple of versions, you could have died.

[02:13.280 --> 02:16.280] The vaccine turned it into a bad cold, basically.

[02:16.280 --> 02:17.280] Right.

[02:17.280 --> 02:18.280] But that's what I'm getting at.

[02:18.280 --> 02:20.280] You got a sickness that potentially

[02:20.280 --> 02:22.280] could have killed you if it weren't for the vaccine

[02:22.280 --> 02:24.280] that you've been taking over the last two years.

[02:24.280 --> 02:27.280] Yeah, if I didn't know, if this was not COVID,

[02:27.280 --> 02:29.280] I would have just thought it was a bad cold.

[02:29.280 --> 02:31.280] I wouldn't have thought of any different about it.

[02:31.280 --> 02:32.280] You know what I mean?

[02:32.280 --> 02:33.280] Not even flu level.

[02:33.280 --> 02:34.280] I've had the flu.

[02:34.280 --> 02:35.280] Flu is worse than this.

[02:35.280 --> 02:36.280] At least my version of it.

[02:36.280 --> 02:37.280] I know every one is different.

[02:37.280 --> 02:39.280] And you can get a much more severe.

[02:39.280 --> 02:42.280] What I had was somewhere between a cold and a flu.

[02:42.280 --> 02:43.280] Sounds about right.

[02:43.280 --> 02:45.280] Still sucks, but yeah.

[02:45.280 --> 02:47.280] And there's apparently a very long tail.

[02:47.280 --> 02:49.280] It doesn't just go away.

[02:49.280 --> 02:51.280] It takes people who've had this version.

[02:51.280 --> 02:53.280] Yeah, mine was about three weeks.

[02:53.280 --> 02:54.280] Yeah, it's about three weeks.

[02:54.280 --> 02:55.280] Mine was about three.

[02:55.280 --> 02:57.280] And don't forget, guys, that there is also

[02:57.280 --> 03:00.280] that very distinct possibility that after you feel good

[03:00.280 --> 03:03.280] for a couple of weeks, you'll get hit with incredible fatigue.

[03:03.280 --> 03:05.280] Yeah, I heard that too.

[03:05.280 --> 03:06.280] Oh, yeah.

[03:06.280 --> 03:08.280] Yeah, that got me and my wife nobody's business.

[03:08.280 --> 03:12.280] One day, I asked my wife, I'm like, are you exhausted?

[03:12.280 --> 03:14.280] Do you feel like somebody unplugged your energy?

[03:14.280 --> 03:15.280] And she's like, yeah.

[03:15.280 --> 03:17.280] Like, it hit us literally on the same day.

[03:17.280 --> 03:18.280] It was crazy.

[03:18.280 --> 03:20.280] Steve, what are the latest recommendations

[03:20.280 --> 03:22.280] about quarantining now when you have it?

[03:22.280 --> 03:23.280] Is it five days?

[03:23.280 --> 03:26.280] Yeah, five days from the time when you test positive,

[03:26.280 --> 03:29.280] assuming you're not febrile, right?

[03:29.280 --> 03:33.280] Although my workplace required seven days.

[03:33.280 --> 03:35.280] I couldn't go into work for seven days.

[03:35.280 --> 03:36.280] I still don't understand that.

[03:36.280 --> 03:37.280] I don't understand.

[03:37.280 --> 03:41.280] Like, if you're testing positive, you have a viral load.

[03:41.280 --> 03:42.280] Yeah.

[03:42.280 --> 03:43.280] You are infectious.

[03:43.280 --> 03:46.280] You should not go anywhere until your viral load

[03:46.280 --> 03:48.280] drops enough that you're testing negative.

[03:48.280 --> 03:51.280] It just makes no sense that it's five days, seven days,

[03:51.280 --> 03:53.280] 10 days, whatever the CDC keeps throwing around.

[03:53.280 --> 03:57.280] If you're still positive, you should not be around people.

[03:57.280 --> 04:00.280] Yeah, but I tell you, it's five days isolation

[04:00.280 --> 04:03.280] and then 10 days of masking and social distancing.

[04:03.280 --> 04:05.280] And those recommendations are based on the fact

[04:05.280 --> 04:08.280] that most people have either had it or are vaccinated by now,

[04:08.280 --> 04:09.280] right?

[04:09.280 --> 04:10.280] Right.

[04:10.280 --> 04:12.280] It's the idea that it's not as bad of an illness anymore

[04:12.280 --> 04:15.280] because it's not a naive population.

[04:15.280 --> 04:18.280] It's an increasingly resistant population.

[04:18.280 --> 04:22.280] And so how much are we going to disrupt society for what,

[04:22.280 --> 04:25.280] for most people, will be a bad cold, right?

[04:25.280 --> 04:26.280] So that's part of the calculation.

[04:26.280 --> 04:30.280] It's not just like 100% preventing transmission.

[04:30.280 --> 04:31.280] It's the trade-off.

[04:31.280 --> 04:35.280] What are we going to give up for reducing the transmission?

[04:35.280 --> 04:38.280] Remember, people forget the whole flattening the curve

[04:38.280 --> 04:39.280] thing.

[04:39.280 --> 04:40.280] Yeah.

[04:40.280 --> 04:43.280] And the point of the really severe restrictions early on

[04:43.280 --> 04:46.280] was to keep hospitals from getting overwhelmed.

[04:46.280 --> 04:50.280] And that's not really an issue anymore because the Paxilavid

[04:50.280 --> 04:52.280] and everything, it's like the hospitalization issue

[04:52.280 --> 04:53.280] is not as severe.

[04:53.280 --> 04:56.280] It's just funny to me that the idea now is sort of like,

[04:56.280 --> 04:58.280] OK, you're better but not completely better.

[04:58.280 --> 05:00.280] You can go back to work.

[05:00.280 --> 05:02.280] And I know that this has always been the way, right?

[05:02.280 --> 05:05.280] People go to work with colds all the time, but they shouldn't.

[05:05.280 --> 05:06.280] They shouldn't.

[05:06.280 --> 05:08.280] I'm always like, why are you here?

[05:08.280 --> 05:09.280] Go home.

[05:09.280 --> 05:10.280] That's never a good idea.

[05:10.280 --> 05:12.280] Yeah, it's worse than that because a lot, especially

[05:12.280 --> 05:15.280] in the United States, a lot of employers

[05:15.280 --> 05:17.280] like don't want you to take sick days.

[05:17.280 --> 05:18.280] I know.

[05:18.280 --> 05:20.280] And it's messed up because, of course, it's clear

[05:20.280 --> 05:23.280] that this is speaking from a position of privilege.

[05:23.280 --> 05:26.280] But when we look at it from a structural perspective,

[05:26.280 --> 05:28.280] sure, yes, from an individual perspective,

[05:28.280 --> 05:30.280] it's absolutely a position of privilege

[05:30.280 --> 05:32.280] to say I don't want to go to work because I'm sick

[05:32.280 --> 05:34.280] or I don't want you to go to work while you're sick

[05:34.280 --> 05:35.280] because I don't want to get sick.

[05:35.280 --> 05:37.280] But from a structural perspective,

[05:37.280 --> 05:40.280] it saves everybody money if people don't go to work

[05:40.280 --> 05:41.280] when they're sick.

[05:41.280 --> 05:43.280] Including the employer because they're not going to now

[05:43.280 --> 05:45.280] have a rash of sickness among their employees.

[05:45.280 --> 05:46.280] Right.

[05:46.280 --> 05:47.280] But here's the other thing.

[05:47.280 --> 05:52.280] I think people are more likely to mask if they have a cold.

[05:52.280 --> 05:54.280] They're more likely to stay at home.

[05:54.280 --> 05:56.280] And also, for me, I did telehealth all week.

[05:56.280 --> 05:58.280] It's not like I couldn't do anything.

[05:58.280 --> 06:00.280] I think people will just work from home if they're sick.

[06:00.280 --> 06:03.280] Yeah, that's how I was after my surgery.

[06:03.280 --> 06:05.280] If you have that kind of job, yeah.

[06:05.280 --> 06:07.280] You didn't even have those advantages, say, 20 years ago.

[06:07.280 --> 06:11.280] So up until only recent times has this been a possibility

[06:11.280 --> 06:14.280] for a good amount of the working population

[06:14.280 --> 06:16.280] to have opportunities to work from home effectively.

[06:16.280 --> 06:17.280] Yeah.

[06:17.280 --> 06:18.280] Frogs.

[06:18.280 --> 06:19.280] True.

[06:19.280 --> 06:20.280] Frogs.

[06:20.280 --> 06:21.280] I just haven't said anything.

[06:21.280 --> 06:23.280] I don't want to.

[06:23.280 --> 06:24.280] No, that's a good word.

[06:24.280 --> 06:25.280] Yeah.

[06:25.280 --> 06:26.280] Bob has no opinion other than frogs.

[06:26.280 --> 06:27.280] Interesting choice.

[06:27.280 --> 06:28.280] I like toadles.

[06:28.280 --> 06:30.280] I like turtles.

[06:30.280 --> 06:32.280] Hey, I have some news.

[06:32.280 --> 06:33.280] Oh, yeah?

[06:33.280 --> 06:34.280] What?

[06:34.280 --> 06:37.280] You're on the show live from Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

[06:37.280 --> 06:38.280] Florida?

[06:38.280 --> 06:40.280] Yeah, you're on the East Coast with us now.

[06:40.280 --> 06:41.280] Whoa.

[06:41.280 --> 06:42.280] Low ride in our time zone.

[06:42.280 --> 06:43.280] Low fame in our time zone.

[06:43.280 --> 06:44.280] Late at night.

[06:44.280 --> 06:45.280] Wow.

[06:45.280 --> 06:46.280] Yeah.

[06:46.280 --> 06:47.280] And I'll tell you, it is hot.

[06:47.280 --> 06:48.280] It is hot outside.

[06:48.280 --> 06:49.280] It is humid.

[06:49.280 --> 06:50.280] But I love it.

[06:50.280 --> 06:52.280] It has been really beautiful.

[06:52.280 --> 06:54.280] So far, the bugs have not eaten me alive.

[06:54.280 --> 06:56.280] I think that's just been luck.

[06:56.280 --> 06:58.280] I'm not going to count those chickens.

[06:58.280 --> 07:00.280] But it's lovely here.

[07:00.280 --> 07:03.280] And the people, I will say, I had forgotten how nice the people

[07:03.280 --> 07:04.280] are in the South.

[07:04.280 --> 07:06.280] They're just so friendly.

[07:06.280 --> 07:10.280] My favorite part so far, I mean, I've only been here a few days,

[07:10.280 --> 07:12.280] is all of the herps.

[07:12.280 --> 07:16.280] There are so many lizards in just different reptiles in Florida.

[07:16.280 --> 07:20.280] You're taking a walk down the street, and there's iguanas everywhere.

[07:20.280 --> 07:22.280] It's so cool.

[07:22.280 --> 07:23.280] Like, huge iguanas.

[07:23.280 --> 07:24.280] I felt like I was in the Galapagos.

[07:24.280 --> 07:25.280] Huge.

[07:25.280 --> 07:26.280] That's, yeah.

[07:26.280 --> 07:27.280] Like, eight, 10 feet.

[07:27.280 --> 07:28.280] Oh, wait.

[07:28.280 --> 07:29.280] That's an alligator.

[07:29.280 --> 07:30.280] Big, big iguanas.

[07:30.280 --> 07:31.280] They got those, too.

[07:31.280 --> 07:32.280] And I haven't seen any alligators yet.

[07:32.280 --> 07:35.280] But by every body of water I've walked by, and there are little bodies

[07:35.280 --> 07:38.280] of water everywhere, like little ponds everywhere.

[07:38.280 --> 07:40.280] There are iguanas kind of surrounding them.

[07:40.280 --> 07:44.280] And there are anoles and lots of small lizards, too, running around

[07:44.280 --> 07:46.280] and, like, geckos and things.

[07:46.280 --> 07:50.280] But the only other place I've seen iguanas in the world is the Galapagos.

[07:50.280 --> 07:51.280] I'm not sure where else they are.

[07:51.280 --> 07:54.280] I also know that Florida has flamingos, and the only other place in the

[07:54.280 --> 07:57.280] world that has flamingos are, I mean, it's multiple countries,

[07:57.280 --> 07:59.280] but several African countries.

[07:59.280 --> 08:05.280] But, yeah, just the ecology here is unique and really exciting,

[08:05.280 --> 08:09.280] and it's kind of a reason that a lot of people really do enjoy Florida.

[08:09.280 --> 08:13.280] There are things about Florida I don't like, but I'm trying to silver line.

[08:13.280 --> 08:15.280] Well, that leads into my question.

[08:15.280 --> 08:17.280] Like, have you seen any sightings?

[08:17.280 --> 08:18.280] Have you had any sightings of...

[08:18.280 --> 08:19.280] Of Florida Man?

[08:19.280 --> 08:20.280] Florida Man?

[08:20.280 --> 08:21.280] Oh, yeah.

[08:21.280 --> 08:24.280] I've seen Florida Man, like, 50 times already.

[08:24.280 --> 08:25.280] Whoa.

[08:25.280 --> 08:26.280] They're all over the place.

[08:26.280 --> 08:28.280] Florida Man is everywhere you look.

[08:28.280 --> 08:31.280] I haven't yet, but there's also so much great stuff here,

[08:31.280 --> 08:33.280] and everybody's just been really friendly and really neighborly,

[08:33.280 --> 08:37.280] and I start my first day of my internship tomorrow.

[08:37.280 --> 08:38.280] Oh, boy.

[08:38.280 --> 08:39.280] So we'll see how that goes.

[08:39.280 --> 08:40.280] Wow, good luck.

Announcements (8:40)

• 6-hour live stream

[08:40.280 --> 08:45.280] Hey, this is a good time to let our audience know that we have an

[08:45.280 --> 08:47.280] upcoming live stream.

[08:47.280 --> 08:55.280] This is going to be a six-hour SGU live show on September 24th,

[08:55.280 --> 09:01.280] so just three weeks after this show comes out, 12 p.m. to 6 p.m. Eastern time.

[09:01.280 --> 09:02.280] 12 noon.

[09:02.280 --> 09:03.280] 12 noon.

[09:03.280 --> 09:04.280] It's still p.m., right?

[09:04.280 --> 09:05.280] Yes, it is.

[09:05.280 --> 09:06.280] It is p.m.

[09:06.280 --> 09:07.280] No, it's not.

[09:07.280 --> 09:08.280] Yes, it is.

[09:08.280 --> 09:09.280] 12 noon is...

[09:09.280 --> 09:10.280] 12 noon is...

[09:10.280 --> 09:11.280] There is no 12 p.m.

[09:11.280 --> 09:13.280] It makes no logical sense.

[09:13.280 --> 09:14.280] Move on.

[09:14.280 --> 09:15.280] Oh, no, we're doing this again.

[09:15.280 --> 09:16.280] All right, move on.

[09:16.280 --> 09:21.280] Hey, Bob, what time zone is it at the North Pole?

[09:21.280 --> 09:23.280] Jay, don't listen to her.

[09:23.280 --> 09:27.280] If it's 12 p.m. in the North Pole, go ahead.

[09:27.280 --> 09:30.280] 12 noon to 6 p.m. Eastern time.

[09:30.280 --> 09:31.280] Thank you.

[09:31.280 --> 09:33.280] We will be doing a six-hour SGU live stream.

[09:33.280 --> 09:35.280] It's going to be a lot of fun.

[09:35.280 --> 09:41.280] Put that on your calendar, and we'll be letting everybody know how to sign into that.

[09:41.280 --> 09:43.280] It's free and open to the public.

[09:43.280 --> 09:48.280] Well, we're going to be doing a couple of SGU episodes, and we're going to be

[09:48.280 --> 09:51.280] doing a deep dive on the book, the new book coming out.

[09:51.280 --> 09:52.280] Yeah.

[09:52.280 --> 09:58.280] Among other things, and guests, and possibly food being prepared live in Steve's kitchen.

[09:58.280 --> 09:59.280] Possibly.

[09:59.280 --> 10:00.280] I hope so.

[10:00.280 --> 10:01.280] At some point, that will probably happen.

[10:01.280 --> 10:02.280] I'm going to be hungry.

[10:02.280 --> 10:03.280] Yeah.

[10:03.280 --> 10:04.280] Those are always a lot of fun.

[10:04.280 --> 10:05.280] And six hours now is like nothing.

[10:05.280 --> 10:06.280] You know, we could do six hours.

[10:06.280 --> 10:07.280] We're just getting started.

[10:07.280 --> 10:08.280] Six hours.

[10:08.280 --> 10:09.280] Yep.

[10:09.280 --> 10:10.280] Just getting warmed up.

[10:10.280 --> 10:14.280] Just getting warmed up.

[10:14.280 --> 10:19.280] And just one other sort of chatty thing before we get to the news items is we were very anxiously

[10:19.280 --> 10:24.280] following the countdown to the Artemis 1 launch on Monday.

[10:24.280 --> 10:25.280] Oh, boy.

[10:25.280 --> 10:26.280] But it got scrubbed.

[10:26.280 --> 10:27.280] That scrubbed.

[10:27.280 --> 10:31.280] They had a pressure issue in one of the tanks.

[10:31.280 --> 10:32.280] Was it pressure or temperature?

[10:32.280 --> 10:33.280] One of those things.

[10:33.280 --> 10:37.280] And they couldn't fix it in the two-hour launch window that they had.

[10:37.280 --> 10:41.280] So as soon as they realized we're not going to fix this in time, they had to scrub it.

[10:41.280 --> 10:43.280] I read that it could have been a faulty sensor.

[10:43.280 --> 10:45.280] There might not have been an actual problem.

[10:45.280 --> 10:46.280] Right.

[10:46.280 --> 10:47.280] But whatever.

[10:47.280 --> 10:48.280] It doesn't matter.

[10:48.280 --> 10:49.280] Absolutely.

[10:49.280 --> 10:51.280] You can't risk this at this point.

[10:51.280 --> 10:53.280] Do they have another launch date now?

[10:53.280 --> 10:54.280] Friday, I believe.

[10:54.280 --> 10:55.280] Tomorrow.

[10:55.280 --> 10:57.280] Well, it's tomorrow or yesterday.

[10:57.280 --> 10:58.280] Yesterday.

[10:58.280 --> 10:59.280] Yeah.

[10:59.280 --> 11:00.280] Time travel.

[11:00.280 --> 11:01.280] It's in two days or yesterday to begin.

[11:01.280 --> 11:02.280] How will it go yesterday?

[11:02.280 --> 11:03.280] We will find out.

[11:03.280 --> 11:04.280] Tomorrow.

[11:04.280 --> 11:05.280] Stay tuned.

[11:05.280 --> 11:09.280] As you're listening to this, you probably know more than we do as you're recording it.

[11:09.280 --> 11:11.280] We know more than we do right now.

[11:11.280 --> 11:14.280] We'll give an update next week one way or the other.

[11:14.280 --> 11:16.280] I know podcast time.

[11:16.280 --> 11:18.280] It's all timey-wimey.

[11:18.280 --> 11:19.280] Talk about time travel.

[11:19.280 --> 11:20.280] Timey-wimey.

[11:20.280 --> 11:22.280] Boy, try doing a podcast for 18 years.

[11:22.280 --> 11:24.280] All right, let's go on with some news items.

News Items

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B:

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(laughs) (laughter) (applause) [inaudible]

Hot Summer (11:24)

• This Hot Summer Is One of the Coolest of the Rest of Our Lives

[11:24.280 --> 11:27.280] Jay, you're going to start by telling us how hot it's been this summer.

[11:27.280 --> 11:28.280] Oh, my gosh.

[11:28.280 --> 11:33.280] Yeah, I just wanted to go over some facts that have come across my desk recently about

[11:33.280 --> 11:38.280] global warming and the temperatures that a lot of us have been experiencing that live

[11:38.280 --> 11:43.280] in this part of the world, right, because I'm in the United States.

[11:43.280 --> 11:46.280] So I'm going to get right to the point.

[11:46.280 --> 11:51.280] This year, even though this past year was hotter than most that we've had recently,

[11:51.280 --> 11:56.280] this summer that we've experienced will be one of the coolest years that we'll have in

[11:56.280 --> 11:57.280] a very long time.

[11:57.280 --> 11:58.280] Think about that.

[11:58.280 --> 11:59.280] That's so depressing, Jay.

[11:59.280 --> 12:00.280] Yeah, it is.

[12:00.280 --> 12:05.280] It's horribly depressing, but it's important to talk about because I know most people that

[12:05.280 --> 12:12.280] listen to this show understand climate change and probably want to see a lot of things done

[12:12.280 --> 12:14.280] to mitigate it as best as we can.

[12:14.280 --> 12:15.280] But we need to think about that.

[12:15.280 --> 12:19.280] This may have been the coldest summer for the rest of our life.

[12:19.280 --> 12:20.280] Yep.

[12:20.280 --> 12:21.280] Right.

[12:21.280 --> 12:22.280] Yeah.

[12:22.280 --> 12:23.280] So hot.

[12:23.280 --> 12:24.280] Yeah.

[12:24.280 --> 12:25.280] Oh, and but let me let's dig in.

[12:25.280 --> 12:26.280] Dry or wet.

[12:26.280 --> 12:27.280] Depending on.

[12:27.280 --> 12:30.280] It'll get worse than it is now, of course, because global warming is getting better

[12:30.280 --> 12:33.280] because we're still, you know, polluting the atmosphere.

[12:33.280 --> 12:39.280] So this this past July in Europe, there was a heat wave and where the temperatures went

[12:39.280 --> 12:43.280] over one hundred and four degrees Fahrenheit or 40 degrees Celsius.

[12:43.280 --> 12:47.280] This broke literally the historical record for high temperatures there.

[12:47.280 --> 12:52.280] China in July hit one hundred and five degrees Fahrenheit or forty point nine degrees Celsius

[12:52.280 --> 12:54.280] here in the United States.

[12:54.280 --> 12:59.280] Areas in Texas had two weeks of of one hundred degrees or more Fahrenheit or thirty seven

[12:59.280 --> 13:00.280] point seven degrees Celsius.

[13:00.280 --> 13:06.280] So, you know, we're seeing spots all around the world where when when there was a summer

[13:06.280 --> 13:13.280] that summer was one of the hottest that have ever been recorded in the history of mankind.

[13:13.280 --> 13:14.280] You know what I mean?

[13:14.280 --> 13:17.280] Like, you know, the last couple of hundred years, say, you know, I'm not going back.

[13:17.280 --> 13:22.280] We don't go back that much farther when it comes to legitimate temperatures.

[13:22.280 --> 13:29.280] So averaging out June and July in the northern hemisphere, it was in the top three hottest

[13:29.280 --> 13:30.280] summers ever.

[13:30.280 --> 13:34.280] Unfortunately, these temperatures are not where the record high temperatures stay.

[13:34.280 --> 13:37.280] They're where these heat levels begin on their rise upward.

[13:37.280 --> 13:39.280] You understand what I'm saying here?

[13:39.280 --> 13:44.280] The heat that we had in the northern hemisphere this year, right, in the past couple of months,

[13:44.280 --> 13:48.280] as an example, they were at one of the highest that's ever been measured.

[13:48.280 --> 13:52.280] But these temperatures are just going to go up from this high temperature.

[13:52.280 --> 13:53.280] Right.

[13:53.280 --> 13:56.280] So, again, what Steve said, this was the coldest summer that you're probably ever going to

[13:56.280 --> 13:58.280] have for the rest of your life.

[13:58.280 --> 14:01.280] We're not just hitting high temperatures, but we're hitting longer time frames that

[14:01.280 --> 14:05.280] temperatures are going to stay high as well, which is the really dangerous part, which

[14:05.280 --> 14:06.280] I'll get into in a second.

[14:06.280 --> 14:12.280] So tracking temperatures since about 1850, we're seeing a bold warming trend since the

[14:12.280 --> 14:14.280] late 80s and early 90s.

[14:14.280 --> 14:18.280] Since the 90s, each decade to come was the hottest one on record.

[14:18.280 --> 14:25.280] So the 90s were the hottest decade of all time, that the aughts were the hottest, the

[14:25.280 --> 14:26.280] teens were the hottest.

[14:26.280 --> 14:31.280] And now moving into the 2020s, it's already lining up to be the hottest decade of all

[14:31.280 --> 14:32.280] time.

[14:32.280 --> 14:33.280] Huh.

[14:33.280 --> 14:34.280] I wonder who predicted that.

[14:34.280 --> 14:35.280] Yes, I know.

[14:35.280 --> 14:37.280] But nobody believed us.

[14:37.280 --> 14:41.280] So this is the trend is what I'd like to say.

[14:41.280 --> 14:42.280] People who believe the scientists.

[14:42.280 --> 14:43.280] Yes.

[14:43.280 --> 14:46.280] Who believe in science and the process of climate scientists.

[14:46.280 --> 14:50.280] So we all agree it's shockingly obvious what's going on.

[14:50.280 --> 14:54.280] There will still be oddball years and locations on the planet where the average temperature

[14:54.280 --> 14:57.280] could be lower than what you would consider hot.

[14:57.280 --> 14:58.280] Right.

[14:58.280 --> 15:00.280] You know, this is we're talking about global averages here.

[15:00.280 --> 15:04.280] So if you live in some town somewhere out there, then you have a cool summer.

[15:04.280 --> 15:07.280] It doesn't mean that all of global warming is wrong.

[15:07.280 --> 15:08.280] It's just the way weather works.

[15:08.280 --> 15:12.280] But when we look at the temperatures globally, the average trend is temperatures are going

[15:12.280 --> 15:15.280] up, sealed, signed and delivered.

[15:15.280 --> 15:16.280] That's what's happening.

[15:16.280 --> 15:21.280] So going with global projections and the use of historical temperatures, what we're seeing

[15:21.280 --> 15:27.280] is that summer temperatures are increasing from four to seven degrees, depending on where

[15:27.280 --> 15:28.280] you live.

[15:28.280 --> 15:33.280] And this is going this four to seven degree rise is being realized right now.

[15:33.280 --> 15:38.280] So this four to seven degrees is a projection that goes to 2050.

[15:38.280 --> 15:43.280] But, you know, we're seeing we're seeing temperatures already on an average increase going up.

[15:43.280 --> 15:49.280] But by 2050, through all the ways that we have to to project into the future, the temperature

[15:49.280 --> 15:54.280] could go up as much as seven degrees where you are, wherever you are right now.

[15:54.280 --> 15:57.280] And that is a lot for the summer, I'm saying, not your winter.

[15:57.280 --> 16:02.280] I'm just saying in the summer, your your your hottest temperature can go up to seven degrees.

[16:02.280 --> 16:05.280] So as global warming increases, summer heat waves will be more common.

[16:05.280 --> 16:09.280] They'll last longer and it gets worse the closer to the equator you get.

[16:09.280 --> 16:12.280] Now, Kara, I'm going to use you as an example.

[16:12.280 --> 16:17.280] So we're in the United States, almost half of all Americans now experience at least three

[16:17.280 --> 16:21.280] consecutive days of 100 degrees Fahrenheit or thirty seven point seven degrees Celsius

[16:21.280 --> 16:22.280] or hotter in a row.

[16:22.280 --> 16:23.280] Right.

[16:23.280 --> 16:24.280] That's what just happened this summer.

[16:24.280 --> 16:28.280] That's the average experience of somebody living in the United States.

[16:28.280 --> 16:30.280] Now, keep in mind, this is the average.

[16:30.280 --> 16:38.280] If you are in Florida, Kara, you could have 70 consecutive days of 100 degrees or 37.7.

[16:38.280 --> 16:39.280] Yes.

[16:39.280 --> 16:40.280] Get it.

[16:40.280 --> 16:41.280] Get it.

[16:41.280 --> 16:44.280] Everybody keeps telling me it's going to get better next month and then it'll be beautiful

[16:44.280 --> 16:46.280] for like six months straight.

[16:46.280 --> 16:50.280] And that average number is going to go up as the years go by.

[16:50.280 --> 16:52.280] You know, you see the case the case that I'm building here.

[16:52.280 --> 16:55.280] We need to make take action as quickly as possible.

[16:55.280 --> 16:58.280] Right. You know, this is we're seeing some activity happening with the U.S.

[16:58.280 --> 16:59.280] government right now.

[16:59.280 --> 17:05.280] Biden just allocated funds, a good amount of funds to help with global warming mitigation

[17:05.280 --> 17:07.280] nowhere near where it should be.

[17:07.280 --> 17:11.280] It's literally a drop in the bucket of where we need to go.

[17:11.280 --> 17:14.280] But at least it's starting and hopefully it'll be sustained.

[17:14.280 --> 17:19.280] Now, as expected, overnight low temperatures are also increasing.

[17:19.280 --> 17:23.280] This is troubling because many people don't have access to air conditioning.

[17:23.280 --> 17:29.280] And this means that people will be living for extended periods of time in high temperatures

[17:29.280 --> 17:31.280] with no nighttime recovery period.

[17:31.280 --> 17:33.280] And this is not a good thing.

[17:33.280 --> 17:39.280] It's troubling because, you know, the extended heat exposure is, of course, dangerous to both

[17:39.280 --> 17:41.280] your physical and your mental health.

[17:41.280 --> 17:44.280] It's going to cost globally.

[17:44.280 --> 17:50.280] It's going to be trillions of dollars in medical attention that people are going to need just

[17:50.280 --> 17:52.280] because of global warming.

[17:52.280 --> 17:54.280] I saw a video recently.

[17:54.280 --> 17:56.280] I was very sad to see this.

[17:56.280 --> 18:00.280] But there was a ton of elderly people in China and they're all sitting in an air conditioned

[18:00.280 --> 18:04.280] supermarket to get out of the heat because they had no other way to cool off.

[18:04.280 --> 18:09.280] And, Jay, this is also another positive feedback loop for climate change, because think about

[18:09.280 --> 18:16.280] it, as temperatures warm, more locations on the planet, you basically can't exist without

[18:16.280 --> 18:17.280] air conditioning.

[18:17.280 --> 18:22.280] And people are going to be running their air conditioner for more, right, higher to get

[18:22.280 --> 18:27.280] the temperature from a higher point down to a comfortable zone for more days of the year.

[18:27.280 --> 18:29.280] That's going to use up a lot of electricity.

[18:29.280 --> 18:33.280] That electricity is going to be coming in part from burning coal or other fossil fuels

[18:33.280 --> 18:36.280] that have completely switched over.

[18:36.280 --> 18:42.280] And so that's, again, another negative feedback into worsening climate change.

[18:42.280 --> 18:43.280] Definitely.

[18:43.280 --> 18:48.280] I wonder if we're going to see underground, more underground homes, because I remember

[18:48.280 --> 18:54.280] reading and I've, you know, if you're under the ground, it's like a consistent temperature.

[18:54.280 --> 18:58.280] Once you get past a certain depth, it's pretty consistent, like 58 degrees.

[18:58.280 --> 19:01.280] That's my number that I've read as well, Evan.

[19:01.280 --> 19:07.280] And so 58 degrees, it takes much less energy to go from 58 to a comfort level than to go

[19:07.280 --> 19:14.280] from, you know, 20, 30, you know, Fahrenheit or 90, 100 Fahrenheit down or up to your comfort

[19:14.280 --> 19:15.280] zone.

[19:15.280 --> 19:18.280] So I wonder if we're going to see a lot of that, because that seems like a good idea

[19:18.280 --> 19:19.280] now.

[19:19.280 --> 19:25.280] Well, Bob, a way to capitalize on the continuous temperature underground is to use geothermal.

[19:25.280 --> 19:31.280] I was going to put geothermal in my house, but I ran into a snag because it takes eight

[19:31.280 --> 19:35.280] months for them to actually go through everything that needs to be done.

[19:35.280 --> 19:39.280] There's lots of permitting and they have to drill a well and do a lot of heavy lifting

[19:39.280 --> 19:40.280] to do it.

[19:40.280 --> 19:45.280] It's much more expensive to do, but in the long run, God, I wish I did it.

[19:45.280 --> 19:46.280] I really do.

[19:46.280 --> 19:50.280] I wish I could have, but I couldn't go another summer with my children in an unconditioned

[19:50.280 --> 19:51.280] house.

[19:51.280 --> 19:52.280] So I had to go.

[19:52.280 --> 19:54.280] I went with a gas furnace.

[19:54.280 --> 19:59.280] But anyway, you know, if you're looking to get new equipment for your house, consider

[19:59.280 --> 20:00.280] geothermal.

[20:00.280 --> 20:02.280] I really am impressed with how it works.

[20:02.280 --> 20:03.280] Yeah.

[20:03.280 --> 20:04.280] Now here's another problem.

[20:04.280 --> 20:08.280] Current energy grids are not built to handle significant increases in electrical capacity.

[20:08.280 --> 20:09.280] Straight up.

[20:09.280 --> 20:10.280] That's it.

[20:10.280 --> 20:11.280] That's the way it is.

[20:11.280 --> 20:13.280] Most countries are not ready.

[20:13.280 --> 20:19.280] They are not there to handle the increase in electrical use and electricity production.

[20:19.280 --> 20:24.280] So it's too late to completely avoid rising temperatures, but it's very important and

[20:24.280 --> 20:28.280] relevant to say we do, however, have control over how bad it gets and how well we deal

[20:28.280 --> 20:30.280] with the heat when it does come.

[20:30.280 --> 20:36.280] And we can mitigate a lot of future damage that we haven't done yet, that if we do nothing

[20:36.280 --> 20:37.280] is going to take place.

[20:37.280 --> 20:38.280] Right.

[20:38.280 --> 20:42.280] So, you know, we need to we need to vote for people who care about this.

[20:42.280 --> 20:47.280] And we need to and everybody needs to become an activist when it comes to global warming.

[20:47.280 --> 20:50.280] Obviously, this is a story that we will continue to follow.

[20:50.280 --> 20:56.280] But, you know, we've been doing it for 17 years and pretty much exactly what the scientists

[20:56.280 --> 20:59.280] were saying was going to happen 17 years ago is happening now.

[20:59.280 --> 21:00.280] You know what I mean?

[21:00.280 --> 21:01.280] It's not only if anything worse.

[21:01.280 --> 21:02.280] Yeah.

[21:02.280 --> 21:04.280] If anything, it's getting a little bit worse.

Tear Down This Paywall (21:04)

• No more paywalls for public research, says White House

[21:04.280 --> 21:05.280] All right.

[21:05.280 --> 21:10.280] Kara, tell us about getting rid of paywalls for scientific studies.

[21:10.280 --> 21:19.280] The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, also called the OSTP, released new

[21:19.280 --> 21:27.280] guidance several days ago on August 25th to make federally funded research freely available.

[21:27.280 --> 21:30.280] The funny thing is the press releases without delay.

[21:30.280 --> 21:34.280] But I think what they mean is that in the future, when federally funded research is

[21:34.280 --> 21:38.280] published, it will need to be freely available without delay.

[21:38.280 --> 21:43.280] There will be a delay in this policy being enacted, but hopefully it's a short one.

[21:43.280 --> 21:48.280] So basically, during the Obama era, there was a rule.

[21:48.280 --> 21:57.280] It was announced in 2013 to try to basically make it so that money that our tax dollars

[21:57.280 --> 22:03.280] or I'm sorry, research that our tax dollars pay for is, you know, available to us to read.

[22:03.280 --> 22:04.280] Nice.

[22:04.280 --> 22:05.280] Yeah, to learn about.

[22:05.280 --> 22:09.280] So seems pretty simple and straightforward, but there were too many loopholes in that

[22:09.280 --> 22:11.280] 2013 policy.

[22:11.280 --> 22:17.280] And what ended up happening kind of across the board was a one year embargo.

[22:17.280 --> 22:22.280] And so what we'll often find now, and sometimes it's worse than this, but we'll often find

[22:22.280 --> 22:29.280] is that if an organization, whether it's a, you know, a public university or a research

[22:29.280 --> 22:36.280] facility receives federal funding, meaning funding that comes, you know, is diverted,

[22:36.280 --> 22:40.280] our tax funds are diverted towards this research and utilized in part or in whole to help fund

[22:40.280 --> 22:46.280] that research, that it was required, okay, this needs to be readily available.

[22:46.280 --> 22:52.280] But the journals basically, which are for profit, required that there be a one year

[22:52.280 --> 22:57.280] embargo, meaning after one year, it would be open and freely available.

[22:57.280 --> 23:02.280] But before then, you'd have to subscribe to the journal to be able to access it.

[23:02.280 --> 23:07.280] And anybody who's kind of worked in academia, or maybe you haven't, but you've wanted to

[23:07.280 --> 23:14.280] access a journal article, or an entire journal before in order to, I don't know, read about

[23:14.280 --> 23:18.280] something, look something up, you pretty quickly realize that if you aren't affiliated with

[23:18.280 --> 23:26.280] an organization that has a subscription, you're going to be paying dozens, hundreds, let's

[23:26.280 --> 23:31.280] say dozens to hundreds of dollars out of pocket for a single article, and upwards of thousands

[23:31.280 --> 23:36.280] of dollars of out of pocket if you want to subscribe to some journals.

[23:36.280 --> 23:43.280] And you think about these institutional subscriptions, and they are big, big, big moneymakers for

[23:43.280 --> 23:44.280] these journals.

[23:44.280 --> 23:50.280] Now, the publishers argue that this is necessary to keep the industry alive, that it's an economic

[23:50.280 --> 23:55.280] imperative, that it also keeps the editors doing what they need to do, which is peer

[23:55.280 --> 23:56.280] review.

[23:56.280 --> 24:00.280] But of course, the editors and the peer reviewers argue, and many of the scientists themselves

[24:00.280 --> 24:06.280] who are publishing in these journals, argue that this is a volunteer job.

[24:06.280 --> 24:09.280] It's fundamentally important for science to move forward.

[24:09.280 --> 24:12.280] And we kind of need to see the whole system overhauled, right?

[24:12.280 --> 24:20.280] Like the entire publishing system within academia needs to be overhauled in order to allow for

[24:20.280 --> 24:24.280] free and unfettered access to this information.

[24:24.280 --> 24:28.280] But as a start, basically, the OSTP is saying a few things.

[24:28.280 --> 24:33.280] They're saying, number one, if your research is funded federally, it will need to not be

[24:33.280 --> 24:36.280] behind a paywall.

[24:36.280 --> 24:39.280] Plain and simple, there cannot be a paywall.

[24:39.280 --> 24:45.280] And that must happen immediately upon publication, not after a 12-month embargo.

[24:45.280 --> 24:50.280] They're also saying that it needs to be formatted in a relatively consistent way, especially

[24:50.280 --> 24:56.280] one that allows it to be readable by screen reading software so that it can be easily

[24:56.280 --> 24:57.280] searched, cataloged.

[24:57.280 --> 25:02.280] Also, all of the metadata needs to be there, especially we're talking funding sources,

[25:02.280 --> 25:09.280] where are the authors' affiliations, so that when we read these articles, we know immediately

[25:09.280 --> 25:12.280] how they were paid for and who was involved in doing them.

[25:12.280 --> 25:17.280] They also require that the data be freely available.

[25:17.280 --> 25:22.280] Because very often, you'll read a journal article and it'll be a summary of the data.

[25:22.280 --> 25:27.280] But if there are actual data sets that accompany it, which there should be, those as supplements

[25:27.280 --> 25:33.280] also need to be freely available, unless there is a legitimate reason for them not to be.

[25:33.280 --> 25:39.280] Like it would be unethical to publish them, or it would be like a security breach to publish them.

[25:39.280 --> 25:44.280] And the interesting thing is, too, the guidance isn't just talking about peer-reviewed journals.

[25:44.280 --> 25:47.280] It's talking about all scholarly publications.

[25:47.280 --> 25:51.280] So they also are including now conference proceedings and book chapters.

[25:51.280 --> 25:57.280] So anything that's considered a scholarly publication, if it was funded by basically

[25:57.280 --> 26:01.280] your tax dollars, you should be able to read it and you should be able to see where your

[26:01.280 --> 26:03.280] tax dollars are going.

[26:03.280 --> 26:07.280] There's a couple of kind of timelines here.

[26:07.280 --> 26:19.280] Basically, they are asking that all of this be instituted at the very latest by December 31st, 2025.

[26:19.280 --> 26:26.280] But that by the middle of next year, 2023, every organization, so we're talking like

[26:26.280 --> 26:33.280] academic organizations, universities, research labs, agencies that spend more than $100 million

[26:33.280 --> 26:41.280] on research have to have a plan within the next six months for how it's going to increase

[26:41.280 --> 26:43.280] public access.

[26:43.280 --> 26:49.280] And I think you get a little bit longer if you are a smaller agency, obviously, because

[26:49.280 --> 26:52.280] your funding isn't there to be able to do that.

[26:52.280 --> 26:54.280] The thing here, yes, it sounds simple.

[26:54.280 --> 26:58.280] Like we are paying for the science, we should have access to the science.

[26:58.280 --> 27:02.280] But a big part of this push is really about equity, right?

[27:02.280 --> 27:08.280] So not only is the OSTP saying you have to abide by these guidelines, but they're also saying

[27:08.280 --> 27:12.280] we want a statement from you of how you're going to make your science more equitable.

[27:12.280 --> 27:17.280] Like we want to know how people are going to be able to access this freely so that it's not going

[27:17.280 --> 27:21.280] to stay within the hands of the people who are continuing to push it out, but that we're going

[27:21.280 --> 27:27.280] to see that this information is spread out amongst industry, amongst individuals, and amongst

[27:27.280 --> 27:33.280] different institutions so we can improve innovation and not stifle it.

[27:33.280 --> 27:38.280] Because as long as this is behind a paywall, as long as research is behind a paywall, and only

[27:38.280 --> 27:43.280] the elite or those with specific subscriptions or those with specific affiliations can access it,

[27:43.280 --> 27:49.280] that's only going to serve to stifle innovation and communication.

[27:49.280 --> 27:54.280] And so the idea here is why are we failing ourselves simply for economic gains?

[27:54.280 --> 28:00.280] And for economic gains, for a very specific and narrow industry, a very specific and narrow few.

[28:00.280 --> 28:09.280] This is ultimately, from a grander economic perspective, going to improve all of our lives.

[28:09.280 --> 28:13.280] Yeah, I mean, it can be a very tricky question because you have to have some business model,

[28:13.280 --> 28:17.280] whatever that is, whether it's 100 percent government-supported, pay-to-play.

[28:17.280 --> 28:23.280] But then is that business? I mean, I think it's a little confusing to use the word business model.

[28:23.280 --> 28:24.280] Well, sure it is.

[28:24.280 --> 28:26.280] Well, it's not corporate.

[28:26.280 --> 28:31.280] It's not a corporate model, but it's a business model, meaning that you have to pay for the work that gets done.

[28:31.280 --> 28:33.280] Right, and we're paying for it with our tax dollars.

[28:33.280 --> 28:37.280] Yeah, I know that. But in terms of publication.

[28:37.280 --> 28:43.280] Right. So open access, there's kind of a long debate over how to do open access.

[28:43.280 --> 28:45.280] Some people pay for it at the top end, right?

[28:45.280 --> 28:51.280] They say, OK, I'm going to pay when I submit this journal article, and then that's going to cover

[28:51.280 --> 28:58.280] the fees that are involved. But we have to remember that that usually is more the case in not-for-profit journals.

[28:58.280 --> 29:01.280] But a lot of these journals are actually for-profit journals.

[29:01.280 --> 29:05.280] So there are people making money on the back end, and that's not necessary.

[29:05.280 --> 29:08.280] There are downsides with every model, basically.

[29:08.280 --> 29:14.280] But interestingly, it's like they're using the best of the worst and the worst of the best right now.

[29:14.280 --> 29:21.280] There are private journals that require inordinate fees to subscribe, yet they still expect their editors

[29:21.280 --> 29:24.280] and their peer reviewers to do it on a volunteer basis.

[29:24.280 --> 29:25.280] Yeah, welcome to academia.

[29:25.280 --> 29:27.280] And it's kind of like, wait a minute.

[29:27.280 --> 29:30.280] Yeah, that's not an uncommon academic model.

[29:30.280 --> 29:32.280] So you should be privileged to be doing this for us.

[29:32.280 --> 29:33.280] Right.

[29:33.280 --> 29:35.280] Thank you.

[29:35.280 --> 29:39.280] You get academic credit for it, right, so you don't get money. That's basically how it works.

[29:39.280 --> 29:45.280] But yeah, I mean, I do think that just changing one thing may not be the answer,

[29:45.280 --> 29:49.280] that we do need to reimagine from the ground up how we're doing this.

[29:49.280 --> 29:50.280] Completely agree.

[29:50.280 --> 29:55.280] And also, a lot of people are already saying, listen, this was supposed to be groundbreaking in 2013,

[29:55.280 --> 30:01.280] and they immediately found a loophole and just figured out how to not allow this to be free and unfettered.

[30:01.280 --> 30:03.280] Probably something similar is going to happen.

[30:03.280 --> 30:05.280] Let's do it for reals now.

[30:05.280 --> 30:07.280] Yeah, let's stay on top of it.

[30:07.280 --> 30:08.280] All right. Thanks, Kara.

Volcano Catastrophe (30:09)

• Risk of volcano catastrophe 'a roll of the dice'

[30:08.280 --> 30:12.280] Bob, tell us how likely it is that we're all going to be wiped out by a volcano.

[30:12.280 --> 30:15.280] Oh, Christ. Now we've got to worry about this?

[30:15.280 --> 30:16.280] Yep.

[30:16.280 --> 30:17.280] Yep.

[30:17.280 --> 30:19.280] Yep.

[30:19.280 --> 30:22.280] That's my news item. Yep.

[30:22.280 --> 30:26.280] All right, guys, volcanoes in the news in a big way this week.

[30:26.280 --> 30:32.280] Some scientists are now saying that the risk of a major volcanic eruption is higher than we've commonly believed,

[30:32.280 --> 30:37.280] and we are unprepared at a level that they describe as reckless.

[30:37.280 --> 30:38.280] Oh, my gosh.

[30:38.280 --> 30:42.280] But when has humanity ever been prepared for a volcanic catastrophe?

[30:42.280 --> 30:45.280] Well, yeah, that's one of the interesting parts of this.

[30:45.280 --> 30:47.280] What can we do?

[30:47.280 --> 30:52.280] I recommend the article published in a recent Nature.

[30:52.280 --> 30:54.280] Check it out. Fascinating stuff.

[30:54.280 --> 31:02.280] This was written by experts from the University of Cambridge's Center for the Study of Existential Risk.

[31:02.280 --> 31:03.280] Oh, boy.

[31:03.280 --> 31:04.280] And the University of Birmingham.

[31:04.280 --> 31:10.280] Question, who remembers the Tonga volcano eruption from this past January 2022?

[31:10.280 --> 31:11.280] Oh, yeah.

[31:11.280 --> 31:14.280] I remembered it, but, you know, barely.

[31:14.280 --> 31:20.280] I remember, oh, this was like the biggest one that we've ever like officially recorded.

[31:20.280 --> 31:22.280] And then my memory ran out.

[31:22.280 --> 31:23.280] It's like, well, what else?

[31:23.280 --> 31:26.280] I don't really remember much else about it.

[31:26.280 --> 31:31.280] So this was a volcano that's called Hunga Tonga, Hunga Ha'apai,

[31:31.280 --> 31:35.280] and it erupted last January 15th in the Polynesian Kingdom of Tonga.

[31:35.280 --> 31:38.280] So, like I said, I barely really remember much of the details,

[31:38.280 --> 31:42.280] but the experts liken it to an asteroid that just misses the Earth.

[31:42.280 --> 31:47.280] And they say it should be a wake-up call, a wake-up call, this volcanic eruption.

[31:47.280 --> 31:48.280] Why?

[31:48.280 --> 31:54.280] Well, OK, first, the damage from this eruption was locally pretty bad.

[31:54.280 --> 31:57.280] Ash fell over hundreds of kilometers.

[31:57.280 --> 32:02.280] Tsunamis, it caused tsunamis that reached as far as Japan and North and South America.

[32:02.280 --> 32:04.280] Their submarine cables were broken,

[32:04.280 --> 32:08.280] disabling their communication with the outside world for, I think, for days.

[32:08.280 --> 32:12.280] And so, yeah, so locally, if you were in that area, it was not fun,

[32:12.280 --> 32:14.280] but it could have been worse.

[32:14.280 --> 32:16.280] It could have easily been worse.

[32:16.280 --> 32:21.280] First off, if the eruption lasted more than 11 hours, it could have been a lot worse.

[32:21.280 --> 32:24.280] Or if it happened somewhere else,

[32:24.280 --> 32:28.280] say a more densely populated area near global infrastructure,

[32:28.280 --> 32:32.280] like electricity grids or vital shipping lanes, could have been much worse.

[32:32.280 --> 32:37.280] Much more worse that we would probably all remember the eruption in detail

[32:37.280 --> 32:41.280] because we would have been talking about it all the time ever since January

[32:41.280 --> 32:45.280] because the impacts, the nasty impacts on global supply chains,

[32:45.280 --> 32:47.280] food resources, climate, you know,

[32:47.280 --> 32:51.280] those things that are already not great for other non-volcanic reasons,

[32:51.280 --> 32:53.280] they would have just been made worse.

[32:53.280 --> 32:55.280] So you may think, like I did,

[32:55.280 --> 32:58.280] that the odds of a really bad volcanic eruption are low, right?

[32:58.280 --> 33:01.280] I mean, my thinking was, oh, yeah, a super volcano,

[33:01.280 --> 33:05.280] the last thing I heard is that it's unlikely for many thousands of years.

[33:05.280 --> 33:10.280] Now, maybe for that level of super volcano, but a little bit less,

[33:10.280 --> 33:15.280] but also very devastating, is apparently much more likely.

[33:15.280 --> 33:18.280] At this point, you might want to fast forward to Steve's much happier talk

[33:18.280 --> 33:20.280] on solar power, just saying.

[33:20.280 --> 33:24.280] The latest thinking on this is coming from the data from recent ice cores,

[33:24.280 --> 33:28.280] which paint a much more grim picture than I expected.

[33:28.280 --> 33:32.280] These scientists now say that the chance of an eruption this century

[33:32.280 --> 33:38.280] that is 10 to 100 times greater than Tonga is one in six.

[33:38.280 --> 33:40.280] One in six.

[33:40.280 --> 33:45.280] That puts it at a level that I think needs to be taken very, very seriously.

[33:45.280 --> 33:49.280] So Tonga was like a five on the volcanic explosivity index.

[33:49.280 --> 33:52.280] They're saying that a magnitude seven, so what they're saying here is that

[33:52.280 --> 33:58.280] a magnitude seven 10 to 100 times worse than Tonga can easily happen

[33:58.280 --> 34:01.280] within the next few generations, three or four generations, say.

[34:01.280 --> 34:02.280] I mean, look it up.

[34:02.280 --> 34:06.280] Magnitude seven is described in Wikipedia as super colossal,

[34:06.280 --> 34:09.280] super colossal, and the scale only goes to eight.

[34:09.280 --> 34:11.280] There is no nine.

[34:11.280 --> 34:16.280] It ends with eight, and eight, by the way, is described as mega colossal.

[34:16.280 --> 34:18.280] You don't even want to go there.

[34:18.280 --> 34:22.280] I think that's probably in the realm of super volcano.

[34:22.280 --> 34:27.280] But these sixes and sevens are not good either, and they're incredibly likely.

[34:27.280 --> 34:31.280] Now, the impact of such a large-scale eruption on the climate

[34:31.280 --> 34:34.280] would actually be similar to the disastrous effects

[34:34.280 --> 34:38.280] of a good-sized asteroid or comet hitting the Earth.

[34:38.280 --> 34:41.280] They can be comparable in many instances.

[34:41.280 --> 34:45.280] But a major and distressing difference between these two nightmare scenarios,

[34:45.280 --> 34:49.280] though, is the effort and money that's being used to mitigate the damage.

[34:49.280 --> 34:54.280] So hundreds of millions of dollars flow annually towards planetary defense

[34:54.280 --> 34:57.280] to deal with the inevitable deadly impact.

[34:57.280 --> 35:00.280] We're going to be hit by a comet or an asteroid.

[35:00.280 --> 35:04.280] It's going to happen, and we're spending hundreds of millions of dollars

[35:04.280 --> 35:07.280] globally, more than that, worldwide every year.

[35:07.280 --> 35:12.280] NASA itself is spending $300 million, and they should, by the way.

[35:12.280 --> 35:14.280] I'm not begrudging that.

[35:14.280 --> 35:19.280] They should be spending this and more for this type of asteroid and comet research.

[35:19.280 --> 35:22.280] Like, $300 million they're spending on their DART mission

[35:22.280 --> 35:27.280] that's going to test the possibility of deflecting future asteroids away from the Earth.

[35:27.280 --> 35:31.280] And that's great. I love it. I've been advocating that for decades.

[35:31.280 --> 35:35.280] That is an existential threat for a civilization

[35:35.280 --> 35:38.280] that we can actually do something about, these asteroids and comets.

[35:38.280 --> 35:41.280] We should put even more money into it.

[35:41.280 --> 35:46.280] But there is no similar coordination or investment that exists

[35:46.280 --> 35:52.280] to mitigate large eruptions, even though they are hundreds of times more likely.

[35:52.280 --> 35:57.280] This type of volcanic eruption is hundreds of times more likely than being hit

[35:57.280 --> 36:03.280] by an asteroid or a comet of similar devastating consequences.

[36:03.280 --> 36:07.280] It's much more likely. That's like not wearing a seatbelt,

[36:07.280 --> 36:11.280] but being deathly afraid of bears, even though you've never seen one in the wild

[36:11.280 --> 36:13.280] where you live your entire life.

[36:13.280 --> 36:15.280] Talking to you, mom.

[36:15.280 --> 36:20.280] So it's like, it's really, it's really, it's kind of like perverse.

[36:20.280 --> 36:25.280] If these studies are correct and their estimates are correct,

[36:25.280 --> 36:29.280] we've really got to be taking this super seriously, I think, at this point.

[36:29.280 --> 36:32.280] I mean, come on, one in six?

[36:32.280 --> 36:35.280] You roll a six-sided die for the rest of this century?

[36:35.280 --> 36:37.280] We're going to get hit with like a seven?

[36:37.280 --> 36:40.280] So the researchers in the Nature article say,

[36:40.280 --> 36:45.280] we call for increased attention to and coordination in research

[36:45.280 --> 36:48.280] aimed at forecasting, preparedness, and mitigation.

[36:48.280 --> 36:50.280] So what can be done though, Evan, right?

[36:50.280 --> 36:52.280] You said it. Well, what the hell are we going to do?

[36:52.280 --> 36:55.280] So here are some of the things, just a few of the things that they propose

[36:55.280 --> 36:56.280] that can be done.

[36:56.280 --> 37:02.280] Step one seems to be that we need to pinpoint the risks themselves.

[37:02.280 --> 37:06.280] We actually don't even know where a lot of these active volcanoes are.

[37:06.280 --> 37:10.280] Many of the volcanoes that are potentially active are unknown,

[37:10.280 --> 37:14.280] and we need to find them, especially the ones, the critical ones,

[37:14.280 --> 37:16.280] that could impact critical global infrastructure.

[37:16.280 --> 37:21.280] These are the ones we need to find and do some of these other ideas,

[37:21.280 --> 37:25.280] like we need to improve monitoring on the ground and in space.

[37:25.280 --> 37:27.280] So here's a surprising statistic.

[37:27.280 --> 37:31.280] Only one quarter of the eruptions since 1950

[37:31.280 --> 37:36.280] have been even monitored by something like a seismograph, 25% of them.

[37:36.280 --> 37:38.280] The other ones, they erupted,

[37:38.280 --> 37:41.280] and we had no really hard data on what was happening.

[37:41.280 --> 37:46.280] And only a third of that data was actually entered into the Global Database

[37:46.280 --> 37:51.280] for Volcanic Unrest, which I kind of love that name,

[37:51.280 --> 37:54.280] the Global Database for Volcanic Unrest.

[37:54.280 --> 37:56.280] So that's disappointing.

[37:56.280 --> 38:01.280] We're not even doing a good job monitoring even now, necessarily,

[38:01.280 --> 38:05.280] and we don't even know where all these potentially active volcanoes are.

[38:05.280 --> 38:10.280] So this would obviously provide better advanced warning of eruptions,

[38:10.280 --> 38:13.280] and those warnings could be greatly improved when combined

[38:13.280 --> 38:16.280] with new types of analyses that are being done with, guess what,

[38:16.280 --> 38:20.280] artificial intelligence that could even make our predictions even better.

[38:20.280 --> 38:22.280] So this one was my favorite.

[38:22.280 --> 38:26.280] This is the best one that I'll cover for their specific recommendations.

[38:26.280 --> 38:30.280] We need to do more research into volcanic geoengineering.

[38:30.280 --> 38:33.280] So what's the worst part of the biggest eruptions?

[38:33.280 --> 38:36.280] It's not really the explosivity necessarily, right?

[38:36.280 --> 38:40.280] But the sulfur aerosols that get injected into the stratosphere.

[38:40.280 --> 38:42.280] You don't want stuff in the stratosphere like that

[38:42.280 --> 38:44.280] because there's no real weather up there.

[38:44.280 --> 38:48.280] Things that are put in there aren't going to get rained out.

[38:48.280 --> 38:51.280] They could stay there for weeks, months, or years.

[38:51.280 --> 38:54.280] So instead, it stays there and it blocks the sun

[38:54.280 --> 38:56.280] and can abruptly cool the Earth.

[38:56.280 --> 38:59.280] So maybe we should look forward to this so that the global warming

[38:59.280 --> 39:01.280] will be cooled by this volcanic eruption.

[39:01.280 --> 39:04.280] Are you saying it becomes a doomsday shroud?

[39:04.280 --> 39:07.280] Well, it depends.

[39:07.280 --> 39:11.280] I mean, sure, if it's big enough, we get a good seven or an eight.

[39:11.280 --> 39:14.280] Sure, this is like we're talking worst-case scenarios

[39:14.280 --> 39:16.280] are not pleasant for that.

[39:16.280 --> 39:18.280] So they're saying that research needs to be conducted

[39:18.280 --> 39:22.280] to look into what can be done to minimize a volcanic winter.

[39:22.280 --> 39:26.280] How could we actually ameliorate this effect, this volcanic winter?

[39:26.280 --> 39:29.280] Now, the scientists say one option that's worth exploring

[39:29.280 --> 39:33.280] is using something like short-lived hydrofluorocarbons,

[39:33.280 --> 39:37.280] which can have a warming effect to counteract the cooling impact

[39:37.280 --> 39:39.280] of these sulfates.

[39:39.280 --> 39:44.280] Something like that may be worth investigating.

[39:44.280 --> 39:47.280] And they would say, absolutely, it's worth investigating

[39:47.280 --> 39:49.280] something like that to deal with this.

[39:49.280 --> 39:52.280] So even more dramatic and beneficial is the possibility

[39:52.280 --> 39:55.280] of actually interacting with the magma bodies themselves

[39:55.280 --> 39:57.280] in the crust.

[39:57.280 --> 40:01.280] In 2024, researchers are planning to actually drill into a magma pocket

[40:01.280 --> 40:05.280] to create a long-term magma observatory, if you will,

[40:05.280 --> 40:07.280] to help improve predictions.

[40:07.280 --> 40:09.280] Actually going down, drilling into the crust deep enough

[40:09.280 --> 40:12.280] where you could have contact with some of these areas.

[40:12.280 --> 40:13.280] Oh, my gosh.

[40:13.280 --> 40:16.280] And the equipment can withstand that heat and pressure?

[40:16.280 --> 40:19.280] Well, I think it probably depends on a lot of variables.

[40:19.280 --> 40:22.280] But if it's in the crust, we could probably get there

[40:22.280 --> 40:25.280] one way or the other, or at least try.

[40:25.280 --> 40:28.280] We're not going to get down into the mantle, not anytime soon.

[40:28.280 --> 40:30.280] But this is all in the crust.

[40:30.280 --> 40:36.280] Even bolder and cooler, in a sense, is the idea to research methods

[40:36.280 --> 40:40.280] to manipulate the magma itself or the nearby rocks

[40:40.280 --> 40:43.280] to potentially reduce the explosivity.

[40:43.280 --> 40:45.280] Think about that.

[40:45.280 --> 40:49.280] Having the technology, and I don't think we're near there yet,

[40:49.280 --> 40:53.280] to turn a magnitude 7 into a 6 or a 5.

[40:53.280 --> 40:56.280] That kind of sounds to me, my first thought was,

[40:56.280 --> 40:59.280] it sounds like a job for Q to do something like that.

[40:59.280 --> 41:02.280] But there is actually funding from the European Research Council

[41:02.280 --> 41:06.280] for a project called magma outgassing during eruptions

[41:06.280 --> 41:08.280] and geothermal exploration.

[41:08.280 --> 41:10.280] So that one was really fascinating.

[41:10.280 --> 41:14.280] If we could actually manipulate it somehow in the ground,

[41:14.280 --> 41:17.280] I'm not sure even how they would do it, except the name of this project

[41:17.280 --> 41:20.280] is actually very telling, magma outgassing.

[41:20.280 --> 41:24.280] If you can make some strategic holes in the crust

[41:24.280 --> 41:27.280] to actually do some outgassing, and that would obviously, right,

[41:27.280 --> 41:30.280] that could potentially for sure reduce this explosivity.

[41:30.280 --> 41:33.280] So maybe that wouldn't be as hard as it potentially seems,

[41:33.280 --> 41:35.280] although we'll have to see the research on that.

[41:35.280 --> 41:37.280] All right, so I will end with the scientists' plea

[41:37.280 --> 41:40.280] at the end of their Nature article, which was really good.

[41:40.280 --> 41:43.280] They said, whether scientists should conduct any volcano engineering,

[41:43.280 --> 41:46.280] which has obvious risks, is a matter for debate,

[41:46.280 --> 41:49.280] but such a debate requires rigorous theoretical

[41:49.280 --> 41:51.280] and experimental research to underpin it.

[41:51.280 --> 41:54.280] In our view, the lack of investment, planning, and resources

[41:54.280 --> 41:58.280] to respond to big eruptions is reckless.

[41:58.280 --> 42:02.280] Will humanity learn from volcanologies near Misantonga,

[42:02.280 --> 42:05.280] or will a large magnitude eruption be the next

[42:05.280 --> 42:08.280] planet-disrupting event to catch the world unawares

[42:08.280 --> 42:10.280] after the pandemic?

[42:10.280 --> 42:12.280] Discussions must start now.

[42:12.280 --> 42:15.280] Wow, wow, I mean, that's just like, holy crap,

[42:15.280 --> 42:19.280] here's something else, got to worry about, Jesus.

[42:19.280 --> 42:22.280] What will happen next, a coronal mass ejection

[42:22.280 --> 42:25.280] or a massive volcanic eruption?

[42:25.280 --> 42:27.280] I'm betting on coronal mass ejection.

[42:27.280 --> 42:30.280] Well, probably the, yeah, just what would be in the line.

[42:30.280 --> 42:34.280] Yeah, I think a CME followed by the volcanic eruption.

[42:34.280 --> 42:36.280] Yeah, I think a CME will trigger a volcanic eruption.

[42:36.280 --> 42:37.280] It's going to be a double tap.

[42:37.280 --> 42:39.280] Oh, the one-two punch, yeah.

[42:39.280 --> 42:42.280] Evan, how much were you resisting saying liquid hot magma

[42:42.280 --> 42:44.280] that entire time?

[42:44.280 --> 42:46.280] I know Jay was.

[42:46.280 --> 42:48.280] Jay was thinking hot pockets.

[42:48.280 --> 42:50.280] No, I was thinking hot magma.

[42:50.280 --> 42:53.280] I mean, Dr. Evil ruined several words for me.

[42:53.280 --> 42:55.280] He said magma.

[42:55.280 --> 42:57.280] Bob said magma so many times, all I could see,

[42:57.280 --> 43:00.280] liquid hot magma.

[43:00.280 --> 43:01.280] What words, Jay?

[43:01.280 --> 43:02.280] What words did he ruin?

[43:02.280 --> 43:03.280] And lasers.

[43:03.280 --> 43:06.280] Laser.

[43:06.280 --> 43:08.280] Well, everyone, we're going to take a quick break

[43:08.280 --> 43:11.280] from our show to talk about our sponsor this week, BetterHelp.

[43:11.280 --> 43:13.280] You know, we all face problems in life,

[43:13.280 --> 43:15.280] and it's pretty easy to get overwhelmed.

[43:15.280 --> 43:18.280] And therapy can help you learn how to actually solve problems

[43:18.280 --> 43:21.280] that you're dealing with so you could deal with them on your own.

[43:21.280 --> 43:24.280] The therapist will teach you evidence-based approaches

[43:24.280 --> 43:26.280] that can help you deal with your problems.

[43:26.280 --> 43:29.280] And that's a good suggestion because recently, I mean,

[43:29.280 --> 43:32.280] in recent years, I started seeing a therapist,

[43:32.280 --> 43:35.280] an online therapist during the COVID years.

[43:35.280 --> 43:39.280] I did so because I felt like in certain ways, my moods were changing

[43:39.280 --> 43:42.280] or I felt I had little control at times

[43:42.280 --> 43:44.280] over some of my emotions and my moods.

[43:44.280 --> 43:49.280] And I really wanted to try to figure out what might be going on with myself.

[43:49.280 --> 43:50.280] Are these normal?

[43:50.280 --> 43:52.280] Are they unusual?

[43:52.280 --> 43:57.280] And it takes a professional to help me suss out those kinds of thoughts

[43:57.280 --> 44:00.280] and emotions that I really hadn't experienced before in life.

[44:00.280 --> 44:02.280] It has been of great benefit to me.

[44:02.280 --> 44:04.280] When you want to be a better problem solver,

[44:04.280 --> 44:05.280] therapy can get you there.

[44:05.280 --> 44:10.280] Visit betterhelp.com.sgu today to get 10% off your first month.

[44:10.280 --> 44:15.280] That's better, H-E-L-P.com.sgu.

[44:15.280 --> 44:17.280] All right, guys, let's get back to the show.

Solar Energy Update (44:19)

• Organic Solar Cells and Other Solar Advances

Interview with Dr. Seema Yasmin (1:07:53)

• What The Fact?: Finding The Truth In All The Noise

Who's That Noisy? (1:26:50)

Answer to previous Noisy:

Puzzle solved sound from The Legend of Zelda

New Noisy (1:30:50)

[male voice? shushing in perhaps an Asian language]

J: ... what is that that we're hearing.

Science or Fiction (1:33:24)

Theme: Common Myths Item #1: The notion that humans have as many hair follicles as chimpanzees, on average, is false, with our closest cousins having 2-3 times as many as humans. Item #2: Bagpipes do not have their origin in Scotland, but are rather an ancient instrument. In fact, Nero was more likely to have played the bagpipes than the fiddle while Rome burned (although that is also a myth). Item #3: Contrary to common lore, the QWERTY keyboard layout was not created to limit jamming but rather was designed for convenience.

Answer	Item
Fiction	Chimps: 2-3x more follicles
Science	Bagpipes not Scottish in origin
Science	Qwerty made for convenience

Host	Result
Steve	win

Rogue	Guess
Evan	Qwerty made for convenience
Bob	Chimps: 2-3x more follicles
Cara	Chimps: 2-3x more follicles
Jay	Chimps: 2-3x more follicles

Voice-over: It's time for Science or Fiction.

Skeptical Quote of the Week (1:46:35)

If you have an effect that nobody can replicate, then your phenomenon fades away. So if you want to have a legacy, then you jolly well better have an effect that replicates.
– Susan Fiske, American social psychologist

Signoff/Announcements

S: —and until next week, this is your Skeptics' Guide to the Universe.

S: Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information, visit us at theskepticsguide.org. Send your questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. And, if you would like to support the show and all the work that we do, go to patreon.com/SkepticsGuide and consider becoming a patron and becoming part of the SGU community. Our listeners and supporters are what make SGU possible.

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Today I Learned

• Fact/Description, possibly with an article reference
• Fact/Description
• Fact/Description

References

Vocabulary