SGU Episode 861

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SGU Episode 861
January 8th 2022
(brief caption for the episode icon)
SGU 860                      SGU 862
Skeptical Rogues
S: Steven Novella
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Introduction

Voice-over: You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.

S: Hello and welcome to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe. Today is Thursday, January 6^th, 2022, and this is your host, Steven Novella. Joining me this week are Bob Novella ...

B: Hey, everybody!

S: Cara Santa Maria...

C: Howdy.

S: Jay Novella ...

J: Hey guys.

S: Evan Bernstein ...

E: Welcome to the New Year everyone!

S: Yep, first show of 2022 although technically last weeks episode aired on January 1^st but it was recorded in 2021 so this is the first show recorded in 2022. We had a couple of weeks brake from our regular show and it seems like so much has happened.

C: Oh yeah, we're like 'In Memoriam' oh shit E. O. Wilson died like all this stuff happened right after we recorded.

S: And Betty White almost made it to 100.

B: Oh my god.

C: Days away.

J: How close can you get man.

E: So close. Legendary John Madden you know him from football or playing the video game Madden NFL football. We lost him too, so a lot of people.

S: And we were talking about all the political figures that died and then Harry Reid died. Kinda the same generation, you know as a lot of the other politicians who we've lost during 2021. So yea that was you know that little week before the end of the year a lot of notable people died. Let's see what else, what else is happening.

(laughter)

E: I got sick as a dog with covid, there was that.

S: The SGU's perfect streak of not catching covid was broken.

J: I know.

E: Gone.

S: Not just once, but twice. Jay, right?

B: Oh my god.

E: I apparently got something in my stocking on Christmas Eve and I pulled it out and it was covid, so there it was for me.

B: I don't know what it is it, I feel spiky.

J: So Steve just told me that the last show we recorded, so when was that Steve?

S: December 22^nd when we recorded the Year End Review show and jay was coughing through the whole thing.

J: Got a light version of it, just a bad head cold, no breathing problems at all, and then horrible fatigue.

E: Oh yes, the fatigue was brutal for me as well.

J: I'm still kinda dealing with it to be honest with you, like you know I have the bottom drop out and when it drops out I fall asleep, like I'm done.

E: Yeah, I felt it for about 10 days, only at the 10^th day did I finally feel I was 95% back to where I was prior.

C: And you guys are all fully vaccinated.

J: I'm boosted, yeah.

E: Yeah, I got my booster just a couple of days prior.

C: More of my friends have covid right now then at any other course in this pandemic. Very likely because I tend to associate with people who are vaccinated, right? And I think that Omicron is managing somehow to overwhelm the immune system even if you're vaccinated. Luckily even though we're seeing hospitals rates going way way way up I don't think we're seeing the sickest of the sick going up. We're not seeing deaths going up.

J: No, the death [inaudible]

E: I don't wanna imagine how it would've felt if I did not have my vaccinations and my booster. That would've been horrific.

J: But you know to get covid after two years of changing the way I live my life I was really disappointed, you know. I felt angry, you know I was talking to Steve quite a bit over vacation, kept calling Steve just like saying 'here's how I'm feeling today, what do you think about this' like just trying to get like more of a professional but I had it I'm like oh my god, I was like so depressed. But then Steve said you know it's super catchy it's very very easy to catch. And that made me feel a little bit better.

B: 18 times?

S: At the begging of the pandemic we were talking about how contagious covid is, Omicron variant is 18 times more contagious than the baseline. Yeah, it's super contagious.

C: I think that experience that you had Jay is really common it's something I've been talking about with patients it's something I've been talking about a lot with my friends lately is this feeling almost of personal failure this feeling of guilt and shame which I think we really really need to work society wide to reduce. You know I don't think we should go so far as to say well everyone is gonna catch it so whatever. I think that that's kinda of unhealthy view as well although there is a chance you will get it, you should still continue to be as safe as possible and to do all of the risk preventions things that you've been doing if not more. But if you do catch it it's not cause you didn't try hard enough. You did everything right.

J: Yeah, I mean that's what scary about it, that's the conclusion I came to cause you know I didn't have like a flagrant, like I'm gonna go out without my mask on, which I would never do, or I'm gonna hang out with people that I suspect could have it, like, I didn't brake any of the protocols that kept me healthy for two years and after I got over the initial shock and like wow this fire is, is in my body now, it's freaky when you get it, because, it's a head game. You just sit there and you're like I've got covid I got that thing, you know, that I've been trying to fight against the last two years. But then you know luckily when I got it, and Evan, same with you, we were vaccinated, so percentage of the danger was eliminated. And then knowing how catchy it is, you know I'm like, you know you're right Cara, I did everything I freaking could do and I still got it like what did I do wrong?

C: It's doing what a good virus does, a good virus evolves to be really easy to catch but not kill it's hosts.

B: Yeah, that's kind of a classic.

S: That tends to be how pandemics burn themselves out because the selective pressure are for infectivity not deadliness and so over time that's just by statistics alone that's where the viruses going to head. But I agree, you don't judge outcomes, you judge by actions, and so as long as you're being safe and and you're fully vaccinated and boosted if you get it, at some point it's a luck of the draw. You know I'm extremely careful, I'm actually even a little surprised I've made it two years without getting it.

B: Yeah, your scenario.

S: I you know cause I work with people every day and I have to do procedures, I have to get in people's face, that's just the nature of my job. And would not surprise me if despite my best efforts I still get it at some point.

B: What are you wearing Steve on your face when you're like in someone's face?

S: The medical masks.

C: Surgical masks.

S: They have this like triple layer like really thick surgical mask that really fits to your face very well.

B: Well compare it to a N95, is it better?

C: No.

S: It's not quite as good as an N95 but N95 are just they're just very difficult to talk through for me so but the heavy duty medical masks, surgical masks are fine.

B: I've been double masking. Whenever I go out. I'm double masked, I have my N95 on and over that I've got my cool cloth one that's got something creepy on it.

S: That's a good idea.

C But make sure you're doing it that direction, you're right Bob.

B: Oh absolutely, I was out with my mom─

C: Don't put the cloth under the N95. That completely─

E: Well that would defeat the whole purpose.

B: I was showing my mum, I was showing my mum and she puts the cloth, you know the cloth one on first and I like 'noooo!' that defeats the purpose. But the real important thing here is like Christmas was kind of like blown out of the water for the Novella family. So I spent this is my Christmas Eve, first time ever just me and my mom and we binged an entire season of {{w|Ink Master} Christmas Eve.

(laughter)

B: And then Christmas Day we did the next season goddamn binged a whole season and it was fun, we had a blast together and you know I still would've loved to like seen everybody that we have been planning but no, it wasn't a bit.

C: I got my hands on one of those Nintendo Classics that came out a few years ago, so it's basically the NES but shrunk down.

B: Nice, yes!

C: So instead of using cartridges all the games are preloaded. Hint, you can get them hacked online and they like load them with thousands of games.

E: Oh gosh, get lost in that one.

C: Yeah, I played a lot of Dr. Mario,a lot of Mario 3, a lot of Kid Icarus, yeah, all my favorite games, it was fun, it was fun Christmas all alone. I enjoyed it, but it was sad, I mean I think things are, things are different now and we're sort of trying to get used to it. I have a fear and Steve I'm curious how you feel about this, not a severe fear but being kind of in the first cohort of people getting vaccinated I'm afraid my booster is not effective anymore. Like I got boosted back in October.

S: Yeah I mean I would say it's gonna last at least 6 months.

C: I hope so.

S: The data suggest that but it could last even longer. the antibody response is great so hopefully the duration [inaudible].

E: That would make sense.

S: So, we'll see. I mean we'll have to wait and see.

C: Do you see this as being and I know will get there with predictions and stuff but as being sort of like ok you get your covid shot every year just like you get your flu shot.

B: Oh yeah, no question.

C: Like eventually we're gonna be [inaudible].

B:' No question in my mind.

C: I just hope that the next booster that becomes available is not the same formulation.

S: They'll iterate it. They're already working on it.

C: Yeah, like it's good good good.

S: We'll see I mean I think they could've done it for this one but they base of the evidence says if you get boosted you're antibody are so high it will protect you from Omicron. So they didn't bother manufacturing the next version but I think they're gearing up to do that.

C: Yet a lot of people are getting Omicron even with their booster, they're just not getting that sick.

S: They're just not getting sick which is fine.

C: Well they're getting sick still, they're just not getting as sick.

S: Yeah, yeah yeah, I mean they're not getting like going to the hospital sick.

E: At no point did I feel I had to go to the hospital of my wife Jennifer or my daughter Rachel, we all had it. And none of uf got to that point where we felt that bad.

C: But my concern is that we're still looking at the risk benefit analysis at acute disease, and we're not very often talking─

B: Long covid.

C: ─about long covid and the concerns about that.

S: Oh I know.

C: So you know maybe you only get mild to moderate illness that doesn't land you in the ICU and you don't have to be on a vent but you're dealing with fatigue for six months, nine months you're dealing with cognitive symptoms downstream. I mean it's still not something that we want.

S: Yeah there are some people who don't get their sense of taste and smell back or they don't get it the same like it's screwed up when it recovers and then like food tastes horrible, so there's lots of disability lots of what we call morbidity you know it's not just life or death if you survive you still may be dealing with you know chronic symptoms. It's definitely part of the toll of this disease.

E: Jay I lost some of my covid weight because I lost a lot of my appetite during the course of that ten days so my food consumption went way down.

J: That is so weird Ev, because I, I actually took note that my appetite went up.

(laughter)

E: Of course it did Jay.

J: I'm dead serious, I got hungrier.

E: Oh no, oh I've lost my appetite.

J: Like I felt like my body needed I was weird hungry you know like I was just hungry all the time.

B: Pickles and ice-cream.

J: Which is not that far of my baseline. But still I was hungrier.

Psychic Predictions (10:44)

S: All right so the first episode that we record in each year we do our psychic prediction review. We look back over the predictions made for the previous year to see how psychics did. This is always just a bit of fun cause they of course uniformly do horrible cause (laughter)there's no such thing a s the real psychic. But you know we do like to look at patterns to see, I like to brake it down, there's a few types of predictions that people make, there are ones that are crazy for entertainment purposes only an like nobody expects them to come true. You know what I mean like 'Bigfoot will be discovered', just crazy ass shit that is like just the prediction is purely the entertainment. Then there are those who are like trying to be successful as alleged psychics predicting the future where they make high probability predictions, right. Like things that any reasonable person could make a guess.

C: Things that happen every year.

S: Yeah, exactly, 'there's gonna be a major earthquake in Europe', yeah, it happens every year. And then there's the throw shit against the wall and hope that something sticks. Right just make a bunch wacky ass predictions and then just only remind people about the ones you got right in retrospect.

E: Yeah, that's the psychology of it.

S: Yeah, so it's usually one of those things, so, I'll note that and I looked, I don't think any psychic you know nailed any of the big events you know 2021 that's always the first one what they didn't predict. There was definitely a theme, there was a strong theme of psychics predicting that covid that the pandemic was gonna go away in 2021.

C: I saw that.

E: Yes I saw that as well.

S: That was clear. That was like a and they were just again, that was a high probability, oh, we have the vaccine, so yeah by the end of the year things should be better, so that's a pretty safe prediction, not. Completely got it wrong. One even said the variants will be no big deal like no, completely wrong. I didn't see, I've read dozens and dozens of predictions about 2021 and the pandemic I didn't read anyone where whey got it substantially correct, they sort of thought that 2021 would be the end of the pandemic.

C: Yeah it's true, I think there was a couple people, I think I saw something on like more of a political prediction site, that was like things aren't gonna be any better next year. But that was really rare. I think they're just like we hoped, we wanted things to be better. So of course that's gonna be what we tended towards. I looked at the people who write up Nostradamus's predictions. Those always make me laugh.

E: Still doing it, huh?

C: Yeah every I guess how long did the almanac go for? Cause there's some 2021 here. And my favorite is when you have to actually find that they're date stamped at the beginning of the year. You can't find something now to say 'this is what I said'.

S: That's the whole point. Gotta be what they said at the beginning of the year.

E: You gotta find the January 2021.

C: Very important. So let's see a global famine, solar storms in asteroids, I love this one, because the interpretations are almost as fun as the original writing, right? Cause I think this is, Nostradamus was so like French, yeah. 460 somewhat years ago was when he wrote Les Propheties and if you read the original translation, I mean it's like:

'The sloping park, great calamity, Through the Lands of the West and Lombardy The fire in the ship, plague and captivity; Mercury in Sagittarius, Saturn fading.'

And the interpretation here 'an earthquake will destroy California'.

(laughter)

C: The lens of the West! Will have great calamity.

E: There's nothing like vaguery to make predictions come true.

C: Right. And this one's my favorite one that did not come true, here we go:

'Few young people: half-dead to give a start. Dead through spite, he will cause the others to shine, And in an exalted place some great evils to occur.'

So this has been viewed as 'the Zombie Apocalypse' occurring in 2021.

B: Oh my god.

S: Remember when that happened?

C: Unfortunately. Would've been fun.

S: the other kind of prediction that that I forgot to mention is the absolutely vague like completely nebulous 'people will be more interested in traveling in 2021'. Ok... Or 'people will be interested in connecting with one another like all that kind of vague stuff that's completely unfalsifiable.

E: General sense of harmony will abound.

C: I's horoscope predictions, it's like the astrology of like 'be especially prudent in your business dealings'.

S: Duh.

B: Especially.

E: High grade fortune cookie. Yeah, exactly. So I went with Jemima Packington, we've talked about her before, the asparamancer. She's the one who throws the asparagus on the floor and claims to make predictions.

S: It's as good as any other method.

E: Absolutely, you know, I gotta hand it to her, at least she's original. She came up with something nobody else did so I'll give her points for originality. She spoke of Covid-19 early in the year and she says that the vaccines will bring a return to the new normal by June of 2021.

S: Yey!

E: Although not the full return to pre-pandemic days. And like Steve, Steve like you were saying, no that was kind of in tune with what all the psychics were sort of saying about it and no.

S: It was both high probability and wrong, right?

E: You're right.

C: (laughs)

B: Which are the best.

S: It was a lazy prediction. A very lazy prediction.

E: Totally. Now, being from Great Britain of course there's a lot of things having to do with royals. She says at least two divorces. An Harry will return to the UK on his own in March where he will be advised to not be an extension to his current terms. I have no idea really what that means.

C: What?

E: But Harry did not go back to the Royal Family in March and you know there was nothing like that. An the two divorces. I don't think that happened, I looked it up, I couldn't find any royal divorces. She also said former president Trump will be disowned by the GOP members because of his appalling handling of the US domestic situation. That did not happen either. She said that Queen Elizabeth II will make big announcements in June on her birthday. No, she didn't because she was basically saying there that she was gonna going to either semi-retirement or full retirement and make announcements that Charles will take over soon. Nope, didn't happen. And but this one she got right at least in one sense - a spate of ill hull among royals of age. Well you know Prince, Elizabeth's husband Philip did die late in the year. But of all age, no, I didn't read anything else about any of the royals otherwise having some major health issues. So she was for the most part entirely wrong.

S: Here's a question: what 1973 movie takes place in 2022?

B: What year?

S: 1973.

E: Battle of Planet of the Apes.

B: That's gotta be the Soylent Green.

C: Soylent Green.

S: Soylent Green, Soylent Green, good job. So that was an interesting vision of 2022, massive overpopulation, climate change already wrecking the planet and mass supply dificulties, food shortages.

B: Yeah but very you know there's lots of and very delicious you know chips to eat.

S: Soylent Green, yeah. And also Soylent Red and Soylent Yellow.

E: And the new Soylent─

B: Oh wait I forgot about those other ones, wait, are they in the movie?

E: Red and Yellow, absolutely.

S: Green was the new version, just was coming out.

E: Yeah, the latest greatest.

B: What was the Red and Yellow then? What were they made of?

S: They're made of people!

B: Those too?

S: Yeah I don't who knows.

(laughter)

S: Ostensibly made of plankton but we know the truth.

(laughter)

E: You're dragged away screaming if you know the truth though. Spoiler alter.

S: Does anybody have any other psychics they wanna report or should we go to our predictions.

B: Real quick I have I got Psychic Nikki, Psychic Nikki was good she had─

S: Yeah she's a favorite.

B: She got a good run. Like a 'Future holds good news for the state of the planet, the planets gonna be, it's gonna be cleaned up! It will be cleaner─

C: What?

B: ─healthier planet and the population will get healthier. No comment even needed. The other two where even better, she said 'Some people might not wanna be vaccinated but the majority will, and I think it will start definitely by the Fall, definitely.'.

E: Well, 51%?

C: The majority of people at least in the US are vaccinated.

S: Not in every state but yeah.

B: When you go global, it's horrible. And let's see her confidence is definitely misplaced. Here this one of course really struck home for me and my mum. 'People can look forward to a much more festive and celebratory holiday season in 2021. I think we're gonna have a much better Christmas next year, Christmas and New Year's.' says Nikki.

J: Not even close.

B: Yeah, if two seasons of Ink Master is very celebratory. (laughter) So no, but they were good seasons, gotta say, it was fun.

J: I didn't go to psychics, I found myself interested in predictions that people made I guess you can call this political predictions or social predictions. So the former Prime Minister of Ireland he said this late in 2020 about 2021. He said: 'With the vaccine with masks, testing and with the knowledge how to prevent and treat this virus I think the pandemic will end in 2021.'

B: Uff, flat out end.

J: You're incorrect sir.

S: You are a wrong Sir, good day Sir! <<--is this a Willy Wonka reference?-->>

J: And then you guys know who Scott, Scott Adams is, right?

B: Yeah.

S: Yeah.

E: Oh yes.

J: He's the guy who deas the Dilbert Comic and he said in July 'If Biden is elected, there's a good chance you will be dead within the year. Republicans will be hunted. Police will stand down.

C: Pff, that happened.

E: Ok...

J: Yeah, that happened.

E: Paranoia right there.

J: Yeah I mean everybody overdoes the insanity predictions of a you know the new president coming in for the most part.

E: Trying to stand out, right.

'J: It's just a ridiculous, bunch of ridiculous statements. You know I gotta tell you like when I look at the psychic predictions versus like a whole boatload of political predictions that have been made the political predictions are actually a lot more interesting, cause they are actually saying something. You know like these two are great examples. They're saying something that's tangible. Like you know the pandemic is gonna end, you know like, no it's not. Most of the predictions are what you say Steve they're very general, they're blaze, they're hedging their bets. I find that to be very boring, you know. I like it when somebody says this specific thing is gonna happen I think that has a lot more wight to it.

S: Of course.

E: Like what we, that's what we do every year. We come up with ours.

J: That's right.

C: I think my favorite along those lines Jay and I think I know kind of like where you're sourcing some of yours has to do with an article that was published in Egypt Today in September of 2020, they were referring to the Suez Canal and they said 'With improved equipment, it is expected that there will also be improved and safer navigation along the canal.' And then what five months later that container ship got stuck for six days.

SGU's Psychic Predictions (21:56)

S: All right, let's move, let's move on to our predictions I'm excited to tell you about my predictions.

E: All right, I wanna hear, remind us.

S: All right #1 The Artemis mission's return to the Moon will be delayed by one to two years. Nailed it. (laughter) Totally nailed that prediction. I was delayed─

B: Yeah it was a hard call.

C: How often can that prediction be brought out.

S: ─by one year.

E: Every year.

S: Yeah, right I could recycle that one. But so that was a solid, completely accurate prediction.

E: Was it a crystal ball Steve or tea leaves? What is your preferred method?

C: Asparagus.

S: It was asparagus, I like the asparagus.

E: Oh you've ripped off the asparagus, the Asparomancer.

S: Although I use white asparagus, that's the difference.

J: That's the trick. That's the trick.

E: I'm a banana man sir, I use Gros Michel bananas.

S: And only Gros Michel.

C: Bananamancer.

S: All right #2 The closest fast radio burst FRB source to the Earth will be discovered. Let me introduce you to FRB 20200120E only which is forty times closer that any other known extra-galactic FRB.

E: Wooo, nice.

S: Thank you. Nailed it.

J: Nice job Steve.

B: Forty times closer but how close?

S: 11.7 million light years away.

B: And did you word that your prediction?

S: The closest FRB source to the Earth will be discovered.

B: All right, technically accurate.

E: Wow I can get myself some white asparagus.

S: The only kind of accurate. (laughter) All right and then #3 A remarkable archeological find will disrupt our current understanding of the time period in question. All right so I went a little vague with that one, however─

B: A little.

E: Oh-oh.

C: You managed to find something to slot right into it, didn't you?

S: Yes, absolutely. Actually I looked up the ten like most interesting archeological finds of 2021.

B: And all ten of them fit.

S: They're all candidates. (laughter) They're all candidates but my favorite was the world's oldest pet cemetery was discovered, 2000 years old pet cemetery in Egypt's Red Sea coast and this does completely change the way we though about the relationship between people and animals at that time cause you know the thinking was that they were mainly utilitarian, you know? But some of these pets were lovingly placed in graves surrounded in banana leaves or palm leaves one of them was. So they were clearly treasured pets. Some of them were toothless which means they had to have been fed─

B: Taken care of.

S: ─you know, yeah, they had to be taken care of, they died very very old.

B: Or their teeth were stolen after they were buried.

C: (laughs)

B: But what kind of pets are we talking about?

E: They had gold implants.

C: Cats?

S: Dogs.

E: Cats and dogs living together?

S: Mostly dogs and cats but there were some other ones as well.

C: Birds maybe?

E: Snakes?

S: So they were definitely companion animals, they were definitely companion animals. I don't know, I don't know if want to give me credit for that one─

E: Yes.

S: ─I mean, kind of a deliberately vague one.

C: Why not, points, points to Steve.

J: Yep.

S: So three out of three.

E: White asparagus never lies.

B: It's a half point.

S: 2.5 to 3 depending on how generous you wanna be.

B: Ok.

S: All right Evan, you're next, what did you say.

E: All right, 'Earthquake during the Olympic Games in Japan will be happening'. And I also mentioned few other details, limited loss of life but damage will have an impact on the venues and will cancel some events. There was in fact a magnitude 6.0 earthquake that struck of the cost of Japan in the middle of the games. The tremors were felt by many people and definitely confirmed by Japan's meteorological agency. News reporter, new anchor Lester Holt tweeted that he felt the earthquake for about 20 seconds. Some buildings were rattled and did have some movement however there was no, certainly no loss of life and no events were cancelled as a result. So I'm like 3/5 correct I think on that one.

S: You got the high probability part, earthquakes are everywhere around the world.

E: Earthquakes, I mean that is the worst psychic prediction possible.

S: I know.

E: I looked this up, look earthquaketrack.com, cool website. So this was for Japan, just look up Japan, ok? Two earthquakes in the past 24h. 12 in the past seven days. 45 in the past 30 days. 655 in the past 365 days. There's two earthquakes every day (laughs) in Japan, to some, to some degree. It's like, duh, it's like, water is wet you know there's your next best psychic prediction. So yeah, earthquakes are garbage psychic predictions. But, hey that didn't stop from making it. Next was my next prediction was 'Global warming trends will plateau in 2021 and will be the same as 2020. 2021 will be 6^th or 7^th hottest year on record and hotter than any year prior to 2015.' It was a La Niña year which tens to be cooler then El Niño or neutral condition years. But still was when compared to the last La Niña year it was definitely hotter. NASA concluded that 2020 had been the joint hottest year on record but 2021 was not, it was close. It was in fact consistent with a long term human caused global warming trend of about 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade. So the rise did continue, oh and the summer of 2021 tied the 1936 Dust Bowl for USA's hottest on record. And that's very bad news. So I would say I totally failed─

S: Yeah, I would agree with that.

E: ─in that prediction. It's in fact continued on it's path towards you know bad stuff coming sooner than later so I was wrong there. My third and final one was a prominent celebrity psychic will come clean and confess that their entire career has been a ruse.

B: Oh how meta.

E: (laughs) Nope, I looked long and hard, nope I didn't find anything like that whatsoever so I did not do very well in my predictions.

S: Honest assessment.

J: I though you did pretty good though Ev, like all considering.

E: Well, I mean...

S: Well based on like the psychic standards, sure you were as good or if not better than any psychic out there.

E: That is the point, yes. I was absolutely no worse─

S: As bad as you were.

E: ─than the, right because I gave you mine for free basically. (laughter) They are charging you in some cases a million dollars for their information. And adequately accurate.

S: All right, Bob You're next on my list. Ok, so my predictions last year #1 A plague of bunnies.

C: (laughs)

E: Is that even possible?

B: I haven't even seen, I haven't seen any solid evidence just some rumors on that one.

S: Well doesn't Australia have plagues of rabbits?

B: There you go.

E: Are they considered plagues?

S: They do.

E: I suppose.

B: But yeah that obviously that one was was just for laughs. And then let's see the next one: naked eye visible Supernova, only visible in the hemisphere where Bob is not.

E: (laughs) Well?

B: And I, I'm still confident that that's gonna happen in near future it's just didn't happen in 2021.

E: Shame.

B: Some amazing thing in the sky is going to happen and I will not be able to see it, that's pretty much guaranteed as not even a prediction just a guaranteed. Fact of the universe. And then my final prediction from last year: Covid variant that is less lethal. (coughs) Omicron! So yeah, I think it's kind of true.

S: You get credit for that that's absolutely.

B: Kind of but it's still kind of like not a hard prediction to make, cause you know that's kind of the way things go with them.

S: But you did better than, you did better than the vast majority of psychics out there.

B: One in there and that wasn't I wasn't even really trying.

S: All right, Cara.

C: So the first one left intentionally vague: more acres will burn world wide that in any other modern recorder year.

B: Ok.

E: Is that true?

C: So it looks like in the US the number is slightly down although when did the Colorado fires start? Technically was that 2021 or 2022?

E: 21 I believe.

C: Yeah, I don't think that any of that has been added to 2021 calculations yet. But, I did say worldwide and I cannot find a total number yet, maybe it's because we're only six days into the next year. But I am seeing that there are places across the world that records have been set. In Russia, in Turkey, in Greece, in Italy, in Lebanon, Syria, Algeria, Israel, Cyprus, North Africa we are seeing record wild fire seasons. So I think the jury is still out on the physical number of acres, but I'm you know I gonna say I'm mostly right because we're seeing wildfire records across the globe.

E: Agreed.

C: Sales on home gym equipment will reach an all-time high. So, as I started to research this I was saddened when I found an article in the Washington Post about Peloton. Peloton feels the burn as Americans head back to the gym, their shares slump more that 35% but then, sales of home gym fitness equipment in 2021 are still up about a 100% over 2019. Roughly 20% over last year, and I'm seeing a global figures that the compound annual growth rate of gym equipment sales is 2.8%, so we are up over all previous years this year.

B: I bought one, I bought something in 2021 as well. And it's kicking my butt.

C: What did you get, did you get a [inaudible].

B: It's an elliptical with arm bars. This one after five minutes, granted I haven't done any serious cardio in a month. So for me that's a long time but five minutes and I can't even, I can barely talk.

C: (laughs)

B: This is really, like this is like─

J: Wow Bob.

B: This is like your legs are really you're forced, your legs are forced to go really high and it's fantastic. So I'm really looking forward to really building up the minutes every day cause this is like a such a good cardio.

E: Not really exercising unless you feel you're damaging yourself.

C: Yeah, totally. And thank you for contributing to my prediction Bob. And then: a great political mind will unexpectedly die. Did anybody unexpectedly, Desmond Tutu died, right?

S: They were all old.

C: I know! (laughs) But there are a lot of great political minds that died.

S: But none of them, none that I would say were unexpected.

C: I don't, I'm gonna keep googling, prove you guys wrong.

[talking over each other]

S: Find it, do it, do it.

C: (laughs)

S: All right Jay, what were your three, you got four actually.

J: All right so the first one I said: it will be reveled that Trump leaked US secrets to foreign interests. I don't believe that is correct.

E: I don't recall that.

S: Yeah, I don't think there's any new revelations.

C: Yeah, what about the Haitian president who was shot last year?

S: Was he a great political mind?

C: Well... did I say great or did I say political?

S: You said great political mind.

C: Well, influential. Great is a very subjective term.

S: Yeah.

E: Agree with that.

C: There you go, sorry Jay, go ahead.

J: All right so I don't think I was correct abut the Trump leaving secrets. I said cryptocurrency used as main currency.

C: (laughs)

J: I'm giving myself a hit on that one because people are using a lot more people are using cryptocurrency as a way to pay for legitimate goods. Some websites I noticed this year take cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency has been added to Venmo it's been added to PayPal.

C: But what is it account for like 0.2% of currency transactions?

J: I didn't give a percent.

C: (laughs) I'm sure it's very low.

S: If one person use it to buy something Jay was correct.

J: To be fair, I actually was thinking exactly what happened cause I pretty much knew it was gonna happen. Let's move on to the next one: China will crack down on protestors in Hong Kong using open lethal force. They didn't openly used lethal force on the protestors─

E: They cracked down on.

C: Oh yeah they're cracking down.

J: ─but they did, they did cracked down like crazy but they did say that they could use, the navy could use lethal force against water based.

B: So the protestors at sea?

J: No but they did say that, whatever I was wrong.

C: So Jay, what's the lesson here, they all too specific?

J: No I mean I'm trying to pick things to be specific. You know what I mean.

E: That's why I like our predictions, right.

S: Good level of specificity.

J: One more, one more arguably most important prediction I made is that beards will go out of style.

C: I think beards were at an all time high in 2021.

J: They were at an all time freaking high.

C: (laughs)

E: My beard never grew longer.

J: You know what it is Cara, I'm a visionary, I just I was too early.

S: You were year ahead. All right well let's see. All right so quickly guys who's gonna read through our predictions for 2022 we'll go in the same order so I'll start. Prediction #1 A new social media fad will sweep the world largely ignored by anyone who matters. (laughter)

B: Oh boy.

E: Already a hit.

S: Item #2 Astronomers will detect a third extra solar object in the vicinity of our solar system spawning another round of speculation about alien origins. And item #3 so that's a real and very specific prediction. Item #3 A book about predicting the future will be published this fall taking the world by storm.

(laughter)

J: That took me a second Steve.

B: That's ridiculous. That's ridiculous.

E: You've lost your mind sir.

B: Like who the hell would wrote that.

C: I hope that one happened.

S: That's a high probability prediction. All right Evan.

E: #1 175 Zettabyte of data.

B: Wow.

E: Which is expected, which we're expected to reach world wide by 2025 will actually occur by the end of 2022. three years ahead of schedule.

B: Wow I like this one, all right, all right.

E: Ok, we're not at the yottabyte yet Bob, sorry. I tried, I tried to go yottabyte I just couldn't do it.

B: Getting there my friend.

E: 2030 they're thinking. #2: 1 billion dollars or more in cryptocurrency theft in 2022. Now that's actually a big deal, because this stuff is supposed to be you know pretty locked tight. That you know theft proven in a sense. But I think thieves are gonna get in there and crack it and really open up a billion dollars or more of damage in crypto. #3 An AI designed drug will be clinically tested on humans.

C: Oh cool, that's fun.

E: There you go, three predictions for 2022.

S: Good job, all right Bob.

B: I will say that a new hominid scull will be discovered. Brand stinking new.

C: Oh like not just another hominid scull but a whole new species?

B: A whole new, yes, yeah.

C: Ok, we will definitely discover a hominid scull.

B: So human a human like an along that line you know human ancestor type.

E: Homo Bobificus.

B That'd be cool. And then prediction #2 Avatar 2 which will release in 2022 will suck.

(laughter)

J: Bob why would you, why, why would you say that?

E: Awesome. Bob I love it.

B: I say that, I say that for one reason, I don't even necessarily believe it. But I loved Avatar it was so cool and it's been way too long Cameron, way too long.

C: He's doing his research.

B: You know talking about striking when the iron is at─

J: Ice cold?

B: ─at zero degrees Celsius─

E: Kelvin.

B: ─or even worse. Kelvin. So yeah like dude, what are you doing? But, you know that said I mean it's Cameron you know he's been doubted before and this could be you know using all new technology it could be really cool but damn man. Why did it take you so damn long, that's why I'm doing this Jay.

J: Oh I hear you.

B: All right, prediction #3 A Gamma-ray burst will miss the Earth by just 1 light year.

E: Nooo. Nooo.

B: And the question might be, how would we even know? And I've been thinking about that, how would we know? But, I would think that if it was only a light year away, that it would you know we would just the way we could see a light beam, a lazor beam by it's igniting things in it's path.

S: It'll light up the Oort cloud?

B: Or yeah it'll light up something that then will spew light in our direction and let us see, oh boy something's happening. But so that'd be you know, thought that was a fun prediction, so gamma-ray burst by one light year. If it's 1.2 light years them I'm wrong.

S: All right, Cara.

C: Ok, man, mine are all not as specific as yours (laughs).

E: You went the fortune cookie route?

C: Yeah I think so, ok. 2022 will not be the year we return to 'normalcy' that is what life was life pre-pandemic we will adjust to a new normal in which handshakes are no longer expected, vaccination proof is required and wearing masks in public is a common practice as has been the case for decades in many Asian countries. All of 2022. #2 Somewhere in the world a major city will be plagued by drought and extreme storm and an outbreak of a deadly disease all within the same month.

E: That's pretty specific.

C: Yeah, ok, it's specific, but I think it's also high probability sadly.

E: Same month though that's what makes it tight.

C: Yeah, yeah yeah yeah I think it could happen. Ok and the #3 Income inequality in America will continue to widen and the world's richest 1% will accumulate more wealth than any other time in the history of democracy matching only number seen during historical aristocratic oligarchies.

S: Ok.

J: I like it.

E: I like it but...

C: I don't know how I'm gonna research that but I think I'm gonna have to.

S: Start researching it now.

C: Exactly (laughs).

S: All right Jay.

J: I have a the Supreme Court in the United States will overturn Roe v. Wade.

B: Aaaah.

C: Oh god Jay!

E: What are you doing Jay.

B: Uff, that hurts man, that's worse than Avatar 2.

S: What are the odds.

J: I actually think it's gonna happen, I'm making a legitimate prediction there. AI will discover a new drug that's useful. I do wanna to say new drug.

S: It sounds like Evan's prediction.

C: Hasn't that already happened?

E: A little.

J: That's my weak one.

C: But another new one, ok.

J: I have another one that's along the same lines. CRISPR will cure a horrible disease.

S: Mhm.

B: All right.

J: It that ok Steve?

S: Ok.

J: You're all right with that one?

S:Yeah.

J: And I have last one here.

E: Uu, special.

J: Either Bitcoin or Ethereum will significantly increase in value.

C: Everyone loves a Bitcoin predictions. Those are like some of the most common ones to look up when I was─

B: Oh yeah?

C: ─trying to see, yeah, like, year in reverse 2021 predictions everybody had their Bitcoins all over the place. Some people thought it was gonna hit like 300 000.

J: Yeah I know, I know, the things that I've been reading about 2022 for a legitimate prediction that somebody is making right now along with a lot of horrible predictions about how it's gonna completely crash and burn. One person did say that Bitcoin is gonna hit a 100 000.

C: Was it, what was it's high? 50, 50 000?

E: 60 000.

S: Yeah 50-60.

C: I think so.

J: Yeah about that.

C: Yeah, ok. All right, these were good.

News Items

S: All right we're gonna try to churn away through a few news items starting with you Jay, you're gonna tell us about the space highlights for 2022.

Space Highlights for 2022 (42:35)

• Big Rockets, Massive Asteroids and More Space Highlights for 2022

J Yes, these are not any kind of a you know predictions, there's no psychic ability here, this is just reality. Looking at 2021, we had a great year, right, for space exploration, I thought it was very exciting, you know, other than the Moon missions it was probably the best year we've had in a long time. And when I say the moon missions I'm going back to the original Apollo Moon missions, I think that this past year has been incredibly successful and very very exciting. So we had a launch of the Webb space telescope─

E: Yey! (claps)

J: ─you know as we speak it has unfurled all of its heat shields ad the main telescope is being unfolded.

S: It's unfolded, it is unfolded. It's done.

J: It has successfully unfolded. Good, ok so that's so it's jumped through a lot of the 350 you know danger hoops that it had to go through. It's going pretty far along.

B: (laughs) Danger hoops!

J: We had two rovers landing on Mars.

E: Oh yeas.

J: And one of the rovers launched that drone many many many times and they were flying a drone you know a vehicle on another planet.

E: A helicopter, that's right.

J: A flying vehicle on another planet. Just so cool.

E: So cool.

B: Mars, the planet of robots.

J: SpaceX had it's first crew docking with the ISS. That's a big deal.

B: Yeah, that's pretty big.

E: Yes, it is.

J: First commercial company kicking the ass of outer space and sending people up there and bringing them back safely. This was the SpaceX Crew-2. Other commercial flights happened as well. So we had billionaires Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson you know this crew. Love him or hate him, both flew their ships to very high altitudes and another billionaire stayed aboard the ISS as a guest, did you guys know about that?

B: Wait.

C: No.

E: Yes. I did.

B: A billionaire?

E: Japanese billionaire?

J: I think it was a Japanese billionaire. Stayed aboard the ISS as a guest. Payed big bucks to get up there.

C: For how long?

J: I don't remember. I don't know.

B: 5 minutes?

J: Should we look it up Steve?

C: I wonder how he handled it.

E: Yeah, interesting.

C: Like, I hear it's horrific the smell when you first walk into that place.

J: Oh yeah, without a doubt.

B: No way. Don't they have like a...

J: It's a toilet.

C: Stiflingly bad.

J: Yeah, it's tough.

B: Wow, what a, that would be a bummer. Like you're so excited and like oh this smells like crap.

C: Yeah hopefully they really like managed the expectations on a few things.

B: Still I would be, I would be so excited.

J: So 2022 guys, so here's what is on the books right now, so two giant rockets are scheduled to have their first flight into space, so we have NASA's long awaited Space Launch System or SLS. And then we also have this SpaceX Star ship. So the SLS system was built to take crew and cargo to other planets, that's from the ground up, they said this is what we're gonna use it for. These rockets are crazy expensive and can only be used once. The first flight is supposed to take the Orion One capsule around the Moon and back to Earth. This is called the Artemis One mission and this is an unmanned mission that is a test for the eventual manned Moon mission coming in a few years, we don't know how many but it's definitely not 2024. This mission is slated for March or April and that is not far away guys we're gonna have, you know a rocket launch Orion One and it's gonna go around the Moon and it's gonna come back to Earth in the next few months. That is happening. All in preparation for the Artemis Two mission which is bringing people back to the Moon finally and that's gonna be one of the most exciting moments of my life, to be conscious while that happens. Unbelievable. SpaceX Star ship, this is solely built by SpaceX, it's not a group of anything, it's one company, it's fully reusable rocket system. If you're not impressed you should be. That is an amazing technological feat that they pulled off. This rocket is planned to have an uncrewd test flight this year. This is the big one guys. This is the one you know the big silver cadillac looking one. It's gonna enter orbit, it's gonna then splash down near the Hawaiian Islands. That's gonna be you know more of the big test that they do before they you know eventually send this version of it to the Moon. And land people down on the Moon. There are also potentially nine Moon missions coming. These are all from several different countries and private companies. So five of these missions are backed by NASA, one of them is a miniature satellite called CAPSTONE, it's gonna be launched from New Zealand in March. It's goal is to learn about lunar orbit which I think is, you know if you think about like what we have coming they need to know more about lunar orbit. They need to know more information about how to orbit the Moon where you know what the actual orbits are gonna be that they're gonna use by NASA and European Moon base. Very cool stuff. NASA's also sponsoring three missions to the Moon surface. We have a private, private companies are building the equipment for these missions under NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Service program and all of this is in preparation again for sending people back to the Moon, so we've got a lot of Moon missions that are gonna be happening this year that are gonna be giving us all the data that we need to make the final plans you know for the Moon mission that's gonna take place hopefully in the next 3 years. India is likely to land lunar rover this summer─

C: That's cool.

J: ─and Russia has plans, I know, right? Like India had a failed rover attempt and I, I guess they, they had another one in the queue so they're gonna, that's gonna happen sometime this summer. Russia has plans to land on the Moon for the first time since 1976. South Korea is planning to ride a SpaceX rocket to the Moon possibly in August. We also have a Japanese private company that's working on landing a craft that is gonna be crying cargo along with the rover to the Moon surface. And of course guys any of these missions could easily not happen. Because of the cost, complexity, whatever, you know how it goes. You know like look what happened with the James Webb telescope like a cable had an issue like a week before they were gonna launch it. These things happen so you never know any of these missions could be scudded in a heartbeat. Another interesting thing that's going on China's been working on it's space station program and plans are in motion right now to add two more modules this year. The space station is starting to come along very nicely, both of these modules will be launched on China's most powerful rocket the Long March 5B. I believe it is called it is pronounced March but I could be wrong. And finally NASA has plans to crush a spacecraft into an asteroid. You guys had to have read about this one.

S: Yeah.

E: Yes. Yes.

C: Yes, so cool.

J: Very very awesome you know this is something that we should've been doing a long time ago. This is called Double Asteroid Redirection Test or DART for short. Plans to deliberately crush into the asteroid named Dimorphos, right? A small asteroid that will serve as a test of this new asteroid redirection system. If this system proves to be successful it could be used to redirect asteroid that may actually hit the Earth in the future which you know just to set your mind at ease we don't have any predictions of anything like that happening you know, we're not observing any asteroids that are gonna hit the Earth but we are preparing because statistically it's gonna happen. If we don't have a system in place we're in trouble.

C: And we all know how hast things can change from watching that documentary Don't Look Up [sarcasm].

(laughter)

E: Yes.

C: We must be prepared.

E: Heading for the Earth, buuuut.

J: One interesting thing about the concept with DART is it doesn't have to blow up the asteroid it just has to nudge it. If you go out far enough, you know, you just have to push it a little bit, to get it of the course.

C: Spoiler alert.

J: And that's their goal. Of course, right? (laughter) Just a little nudge.

C: It's all you gotta do.

J: That's all you need to do.

E: You got to catch it early enough, that is the point.

J: So keep your eyes peeled guys, let's look up to the stars in 2022.

E: Yeah, look up.

C: (laughs)

E: Do look up.

S: Lot to look forward to, it's gonna be exciting decade, it really is.

E: Yeah, it will be, space-wise one of the brighter points hopefully.

J: Yep.

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