SGU Episode 561
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| SGU Episode 561 |
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| April 9th 2016 |
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| (brief caption for the episode icon) |
| Skeptical Rogues |
| S: Steven Novella |
B: Bob Novella |
C: Cara Santa Maria |
J: Jay Novella |
E: Evan Bernstein |
| Quote of the Week |
I’ve discovered the one cause of all the one cause theories: a deficiency of critical-thinking skills combined with an overactive imagination. |
| Links |
| Download Podcast |
| Show Notes |
| Forum Discussion |
Introduction
You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.
What's the Word ()
News Items
Food Production ()
Swearing ()
Laser Propulsion ()
Who's That Noisy ()
- Answer to last week: Meteor
Name That Logical Fallacy ()
Hi guys, big fan etc etc. I was wondering if you could talk on the show about something I think is kind of a fallacy, but I'm not sure. If I predict that, for example, it will rain tomorrow morning, then come midday tomorrow I'll know if my prediction was right or wrong. On the other hand, if I predict that there's a 20% chance of rain tomorrow then I am correct whether it rains or not, because we can never repeat the experiment so the actual probability I gave it is meaningless. Is it a fallacy to predict a chance for something to occur if that experiment can only ever happen once? Other examples would be websites like fivethirtyeight.com predicting Sanders has a 17% chance of winning the primary - regardless of the result (unless something extremely unexpected happens) they can say 'see, told you that had a chance of happening', or a chiropractor telling me that fixing a subluxation will have a one in three chance of curing my headache. Cheers Martin
Your Questions and E-mails
Question #1: Carter UFO Follow Up ()
Dr. Novella, As soon as I got this email from my grandparents, I knew I was going to forward it to you. I wanted to forward you the whole string since you came up in the discussion and I thought it was fun. Jay Kelly is my uncle by marriage. He is married to Amy. A professor form Georgia Tech (where my grandfather went as ROTC Navy before he transferred to Annapolis, where my uncle Jack went (Jimmy's oldest son) and got a degree in Physics, and my alma mater where I got my Bachelor's in Mechanical Engineering (I got my Master's in Mechanical Engineering at Auburn)) emailed my grandfather's office regarding his experience with the Air Force with sodium and barium. My grandparents sent the story to the whole family without much comment, but that's how they often communicate fun and interesting stories or articles that they want to point out. As you can imagine, I've heard the story many times. Only two or three times from my grandfather though, and it always ends in a lesson, and it's always to one of his young grandchildren or great grandchildren. A memorable experience I've had was when he told it at his house, at in his driveway, retelling the story while pointing to the same part of the sky where he saw the UFO many years ago. We all know that the UFOlogists have latched on to the story as proof that Jimmy Carter saw aliens, but that's not how he told the story at all. He told the story as a lesson of his characteristic precision of language. It went something like this: My grandfather told us (Me, my brother Jeremy, and my brother Jamie) that he saw a UFO. To set the stage, we are all very young at the time (I was definitely less than 16, probably 13 or 14. That puts Jeremy at 11 and Jamie at 7 years old). Jeremy was very interested in aliens and may have mentioned something about it, he very well may have outright asked if there were aliens (when we met Bill Clinton, that was his only question) because he has in the past, and my grandfather casually stated that he saw a UFO. Of course, 14, 11, and 7 year old boys now have their grandfather's full and undivided attention. He said he saw a ball in the sky, then he pointed to the sky, and said the ball started blue, then turned red, then zoomed away. He waited patiently as we all form the conclusion that he saw an alien. Then he says casually that oh, it wasn't an alien, it was a UFO. We look at him puzzled, because we've never heard the difference, and he explains that it was Unidentified, it was Flying, and it was an Object. A UFO. He told us he suspected it was a rocket or something from Warner Robbins or Eglin, but he didn't know. When he was President, he asked the people that might know (the Air Force, Army, Pentagon), and he didn't get an answer. He laughed and said he didn't spend a whole lot of taxpayer money on it, just wanted to know if it was in a file somewhere. But UFO it remained. If the information from Professor Justus pans out, it might very well turn into an IFO, as long as we can agree that a blob of barium gas can be an Object. Thank you for your show and all you do. The Skeptics Guide is one of my favorite things. Josh Carter Mr. Buchanan, [Should be Bohanan] I'm sorry to have missed your recent presentation to the Alpharetta Historical Society. Friends of mine who attended said it was quite good. I am a native Atlantan, former Professor at GA Tech, longtime admirer of President Carter, and longtime contributor to The Carter Center. After recently reading the book 'Georgia Myths & Legends', by Augusta Chronicle columnist Don Rhodes, specifically Chapter 5 'Jimmy Carter and the UFO', I am virtually certain that I have identified the source of what it was that President Carter saw. In the 1960s and early 70s I worked on an Air Force sponsored project that studied the upper atmosphere using releases of glowing chemical clouds, produced by rockets launched from Eglin AFB rocket range in Florida. Some of these chemical clouds, notably sodium and barium, were visible by the process of resonance scattering of sunlight. Clouds of this type had to be launched not long after sunset or not long before sunrise. This was due to the fact that the cloud had to be in sunlight at high altitude, while it was still dark enough at ground level for the cloud to be visible against the dark sky. In Carter's official 1973 UFO report, as given in the Rhodes book, he stated that he had seen the phenomenon in October, 1969, at 7:15 pm EST. However, it has been determined from Lions Club records that Carter must have seen the 'UFO' when he spoke to their Leary, GA Chapter on January 6, 1969. The report 'U.S. Space Science Program Report to COSPAR, 1970' (QB504.U54, Appendix I, page 154), documents that there was a barium cloud launched from Eglin AFB (Rocket Number AG7.626) and released on January 6, 1969 at 7:35 pm EST (January 7, 1969, 0035 UTC) [COSPAR stands for Committee on Space Research]. The reported altitude for this cloud was 152 km. With a distance between Leary, GA and Eglin AFB, FL of about 234 km, this cloud would have appeared in the sky at an elevation of 33 degrees (consistent with Carter's estimate of a 30 degree elevation). Carter's report notes that stars were visible, so the night must have been clear. I can verify from personal experience that under clear skies, a barium cloud such as this would easily have been visible from the distance of Leary, GA. Carter reported the UFO 'appeared from West'. The direction of Eglin AFB from Leary, GA is approximately WSW. Thus this barium cloud at Eglin is consistent with Carter's reported 'UFO' as to time, elevation, AND direction. Furthermore, the appearance reported by Carter is totally consistent with a high altitude barium cloud. His report stated that it was 'bluish at first, then reddish, luminous not solid'. A neutral barium cloud would initially glow bluish or greenish, with parts of it taking on a reddish glow as some the barium becomes ionized in the high altitude sunlight. The size and brightness, reported as being about that of the moon, would also be consistent with a barium cloud at Eglin, as viewed from Leary, GA Carter has been reported as saying that he never believed that he had seen an alien spacecraft, but that he had no idea exactly what it was. I'm interested in exploring if this information could be relayed to President Carter, so that if he wishes to, he can better understand what it was that he saw back then. Do you have any suggestions? In the past few weeks, I have used several avenues for sending this information to the Carter Center Library and have yet to receive a reply. A Facebook Messenger inquiry to the Carter Library FB page provided me with the email address of Tony Clark, Public Affairs Director of the Carter Library. I emailed him the above information, but have yet to receive a reply. Thanks, Carl G. 'Jere' Justus
Science or Fiction ()
Item #1: Scientists have developed solar cells made from inexpensive perovskite crystals that are almost twice as efficient as silicon based solar cells. Item #2: Researchers announce that they have made and successfully tested a rechargeable battery that uses bacteria to store and generate electricity. Item #3: MIT scientists have devised a technique for doubling the efficiency of coal burning to produce electricity.
Skeptical Quote of the Week ()
"I've discovered the one cause of all the one-cause theories: a deficiency of critical-thinking skills combined with an overactive imagination." - Harriet Hall
S: The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information on this and other episodes, please visit our website at theskepticsguide.org, where you will find the show notes as well as links to our blogs, videos, online forum, and other content. You can send us feedback or questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. Also, please consider supporting the SGU by visiting the store page on our website, where you will find merchandise, premium content, and subscription information. Our listeners are what make SGU possible.
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