SGU Episode 499
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| SGU Episode 499 |
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| January 31st 2015 |
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| (brief caption for the episode icon) |
| Skeptical Rogues |
| S: Steven Novella |
B: Bob Novella |
J: Jay Novella |
E: Evan Bernstein |
| Quote of the Week |
To every complex question there is a simple answer and it is wrong. |
| Links |
| Download Podcast |
| Show Notes |
| Forum Discussion |
Introduction
You're listening to the Skeptics' Guide to the Universe, your escape to reality.
Forgotten Superheroes of Science ()
- Jocelyn Bell Burnel: Astrophysicist who discovered Pulsars
News Items
Green Coffee Bean “Hoax” ()
Disneyland Measles Outbreak (13:45)
S: Evan, what are you doing after the show?
E: I'm going to Disneyland
S: Thankyou, you took my cue very nicely.
S: Be careful though, have you gotten all of your vaccines?
E: Maybe! (laughs) Who knows? We'll find out, won't we? Yeah, latest news out of California regarding the measles, unfortunately is not good, is not good. As you know, there's an outbreak of the measles that has occurred in California. The latest statisics are, there are 87 confirmed cases that's as of today, who knows if that number will tick up slightly, maybe by the time the episode goes up, but of the 87 cases, 50 of them can be linked directly to Disneyland, which was once the happiest place on Earth, but I think that's an extra-ordinary claim now. We know about the vaccination status of 42 people, of these 87 cases, the rest it's unclear. Of the 42 people whose status we know, whether they were vaccinated or not, 34 of the people who contracted the measles were unvaccinated, 3 were partially vaccinated, and 5 were fully vaccinated. So what does that tell you? You were much more succeptible to catch these measles at Disneyland if you were unvaccinated as opposed to the small percentage of the people who were vaccinated and who happened to contract it.
B: Ah, it's a good point.
S: Yeah, I did a quick calculation. Assuming that 90% of the population is vaccinated, those are the latest rates, assuming that holds in Disneyland, then that means that if you're unvaccinated, you were 67 times more likely to become infected with measles than if you were vaccinated.
B: Awesome.
J: Wow.
E: Yeah, it's more evidence that shows you that vaccinations matter. It's so important. This disease of measles, this virus was eliminated back in 2000 so just 15 years ago.
S: Yeah, well to be clear, endemic measles was. Like smallpox has been completely eradicated, it doesn't exist anywhere in the world in the wild. Measles was no longer endemic in the United States, which means that there wasn't measles bouncing around in the US, all of the cases were imported from outside of the US. But now it's basically coming back as an endemic illness, as sort of a self-perpetuating illness.
B: Yeah, and those international travelers that had measles and came to the States, because of herd immunity, it never penetrated very deeply because specifically of herd immunity.
S: Yeah, there'd be a few cases, maybe with close contact, but it wouldn't lead to an outbreak, yeah. Now we're getting outbreaks because herd immunity has been eroded by pockets of vaccine refusers, essentially.
J: But Steve, do they know where this particular strain comes from, can they follow it back in any way?
S: They haven't found the original case that cased the Disneyland outbreak.
E: Patient zero?
S: Yeah, they haven't found patient zero, yeah.
E: Steve, I've heard from many places that measles is not something to be all up in arms about. It's one of those things, a chickenpox kind of thing where yeah, you know, kids get it at some point and you just kind of suffer through the symptoms and you go along your way once it's over.
S: Yeah, that's not true. It's a serious illness, I mean you're basically miserable for 2 weeks. It causes high fever and uncomfortable rash. Of the people in this outbreak, 25%, 1 in 4 have to be hospitalised.
B: Oh wow.
J: Wow.
S: And any illness that puts you in the hospital is a big deal.
E: Yeah, it's not trivial.
S: This is not a trivial illness but the anti-vaxers would want you to think that this is no big deal because they're always trying to minimise the benefits of vaccines and exaggerate their risks, that's what they do.
B: Guys, did you know that in Orange County where Disneyland is, that there are schools in that county where as many as 60-80% of the students have missed at least some of their vaccinations. 60-80% in some of these schools, that is just a mind-boggling number.
J: What the hell is going on with these states?
S: That can be a little deceptive because these schools specifically are vaccine-refuser friendly so they congregate there, you know.
B: Oh yeah, I'm sure there's a good reason for them to be that high, but still the fact remains, those numbers are huge. And one other quick thing. You might think, oh well, Disney ought to do something about it. But there's actually nothing that Disney could have done or can do in the future to prevent an outbreak like this. The bottom line is that the virus particles are airborne and when you have people congregating together, stuff like this is going to happen, so it's not like you can actually institute anything that could help this.
E: Well they're being reactive to it at least properly. Disneyland has said that all employees that could have been in contact with people diagnosed with the measles were asked to provide vaccination records or do a blood test to show they had immunity to the disease and that the employees who had not been vaccinated or could not confirm it were asked to go onto paid leave until their status could be confirmed or the 21 days are up. 21 days is the...
S: incubation period.
E: ...time in which you can give it to other people.
S: But I hear Disney is opening up a new ride, "It's a Smallpox World".
(laughter)
B: Oh man, nice one.
S: Can you imagine people on the teacup ride, just sort of throwing bodily fluids all around?
E: They've actually tracked some other folks who had visited Disneyland and had come down with the measles in other states, and they were able to corroborate that these people had visited Disneyland in the last month or two and it's not isolated to just California, it's getting around.
S: There was an Onion article that completely nailed it. The headline was "I Don't Vaccinate My Child Because It's My Right To Decide What Eliminated Diseases Come Roaring Back".
E: Constitutionally protected right.
S: The money quote is "The decision to cause a full-blown, multi-state pandemic of a virus that was effectively eliminated from the national population generations ago is my choice alone, and regardless of your personal convictions, that right should never be taken away from a child’s parent. Never."
B: Oh man, that's beatiful.
S: Satire is wonderful.
Galaxy-Sized Wormhole ()
Fail-Safe for Artificial Life ()
Who's That Noisy ()
- Answer to last week
Questions and Emails
DNA Comparisons ()
I got into a discussion with “The Absurdity of Atheism” (AoA) on Facebook, (https://www.facebook.com/TheAbsurdityOfAtheism) regarding the similarity of Human and Chimp DNA. It was exhausting and ultimately nonproductive, unless someone on the fence was moved by my argument, one can hope. I’d like to know if there are resources available to help argue various points of contention with a theist. There are resources online to help the theists. The argument – he cited what looked like a legit paper that stated 66-93% of the DNA was the same and that chimps and humans had a common ancestor. From that moment on, he used the number “70%,” would not acknowledge up to 93%, said the “common ancestor” part of the paper was opinion, and that three million years was not enough time to explain the 30% divergence given current rates of mutation. Now, I am a science enthusiast. I don’t know anything about the moderator, and I feel I was not adept enough to defend my position. I found three papers from the same site that stated 93% and up to 95% simularity. One of the papers used only 800kb of genome information, which was all the information available at that time (2004). It was difficult to defend my position. David Arizona
Name That Logical Fallacy ()
- Name That Logical Fallacy
Hello! I run a Youtube channel that is completely unrelated to anything skeptical, and is mainly just about living in Japan as an international couple with a baby. However, recently in a video blog I was commenting on a silly television show here in Japan that had a segment that day with a supposed UFO expert. It was the usual stuff you see in the media, nothing special. However, I got a random comment in the youtube video that was full of the usual UFO believer arguments that I felt was full of logical fallacies, so I thought I'd ask: How many logical fallacies are in this comment? The comment: Yes. A percentage of UFO videos and pictures are faked or photoshopped. But dude really? There are thousands of videos and photos, and more and more of them in daylight and close up. Just the law of averages with thousands of them means that there are real craft. They do perform things that cannot be done with any current public technology. AND cannot be done with any materials we have with our present understanding of physics. A human body would not survive the maneuvers performed. Just go to The Disclosure Project web site and read the affidavits from hundreds of upper US and global military and scientists working on government black ops projects. You need to catch up. /end comment You can see my response here: http://youtu.be/z93kVfOoj3E I felt like this was my first chance to try to be a good skeptic directly, even though I've been following your show for years now, and it really feels hard to deal with people I know personally believing the usual pseudoscience fluff without insulting them. Thanks! Chase in Japan
Crazy Stuff from the Week ()
Science or Fiction ()
Item #1: Raw cashews contain the same highly toxic chemical found in poison ivy, which is in the same family as the cashew tree. Item #2: Walnuts are the #1 culinary nut produced world-wide, at 23 tonnes per year. Item #3: Botanically speaking, peanuts are legumes, while cashews, pistachios, almonds, and the white part of the coconut that we eat are all seeds. Chestnuts, hazelnuts, and acorns are true nuts. Item #4: Botanically speaking, peanuts are legumes, while cashews, pistachios, almonds, and the white part of the coconut that we eat are all seeds. Chestnuts, hazelnuts, and acorns are true nuts.
Skeptical Quote of the Week ()
To every complex question there is a simple answer and it is wrong… ~ H.L. Mencken
S: The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe is produced by SGU Productions, dedicated to promoting science and critical thinking. For more information on this and other episodes, please visit our website at theskepticsguide.org, where you will find the show notes as well as links to our blogs, videos, online forum, and other content. You can send us feedback or questions to info@theskepticsguide.org. Also, please consider supporting the SGU by visiting the store page on our website, where you will find merchandise, premium content, and subscription information. Our listeners are what make SGU possible.
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